1. wknd: 204M vs 190M (-14M)
2. wknd: 353M vs 307M (-46M)
Their difference will continue to increase with each upcoming week.
I still believe it‘ll finish with 425M+ (vs 574M) domestic and 1B+ (vs 1.36B) globally.
Even tho, it‘ll finish weaker than the first film, this is nonetheless a huge financial success!
But I hope they try a bit harder with their third film or else that one will showcase a further decrease. The next film can be Super Mario World, Super Mario Wonder, Super Mario Odyssey or a spin-off such as Donkey Kong, Luigi‘s Mansion…, they have a lot of options.

Hot_Swimming_112 on
So basically you’re saying it’s already made its money back from production and marketing just from domestic tickets? I don’t know the split between movie theaters and studios so maybe it still has a way to go. But if you add domestic and international, I am sure they’re in profit now.
newjackgmoney21 on
Starting today the weekday numbers are going to start dropping hard with no more spring break. Dont be surprised by an 82% drop from Sunday. How well Galaxy does going forward will all depend on the weekends.
farukosh on
I expect a 1.2B result and i think it’ll land around that, which is insanely good for such a quick sequel. The trilogy is all but confirmed and should pass the billy but after that, let it rest for a while before coming back, let other series breath and get time while mario comes back.
430M + 750M might be the split i believe.
Icy_Smoke_733 on
Nearly $1M down from estimates. This is very reminiscent of Moana 2 in terms of huge opening ($389m worldwide opening) but weaker-than-expected reception. Will likely end up with a similar gross ($1.06B), which is significantly less than Zootopia 2’s gross *without* China: $1.21B.
Edit: Still a massive success for Illumination and Nintendo, who’ll likely see a big increase in merch and game sales.
sbursp15 on
I know there are obvious quality concerns but it’s not like Mario one was close to a masterpiece at all. The fact is that Illumination/Dreamwork sequels don’t always perform the same as Disney/Pixar sequels. A Disney sequel is almost always going to overperform the original due to Disney+, strong branding and large gaps between films. Versus Universal’s animation studios pump out sequels much faster.
Antman269 on
This performance is almost identical to Moana 2. Both were highly anticipated sequels that got worse reception than expected (A- Cinemascore is weak for an animated movie) and had some mediocre legs after a massive 5 day opening. This will likely only barely cross the $1 billion mark like Moana 2 did, and I expect the third Mario movie will underperform a lot more if they don’t change their strategy.
Accomplished-Head449 on

PatternPlenty1107 on
TOP 10 biggest 2nd 3-day weekends for animated films at the US box office:
1. Inside Out 2 – 101M
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie – 92M
3. Frozen II – 86M
4. Incredibles 2 – 80M
5. The Lion King (2019) – 76M
6. Finding Dory – 73M
7. Shrek 2 – 72M
8. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie – 68M
9. Toy Story 4 – 59M
10. Toy Story 3 – 59M

Fun_Condition2377 on
The estimates came down from 71m to 69m and the actuals are 68m.
urkermannenkoor on
Huh? Revised down again?
nicolasb51942003 on
$450M should be the target.
There is nothing for kids/families until Grogu and that film’s appeal is debateable. Sheep Detectives may offer some competition I guess but nothing major is being released until Toy Story 5.
AutumnRCS on
They should’ve added Geno. It would’ve easily surpassed the og. /j
bigelangstonz on
500M domestic dead best case is around 440M domestic at this point which is still the 2nd highest gross for illumination
Key-Payment2553 on
Geez… it went way below expectations which we know that mixed WOM is affecting its legs since animated sequels like this don’t make as much as its predecessor had that aren’t Disney / Pixar sequels that are long gaps like Inside Out, Moana and Zootopia did and should soon with Toy Story, Frozen and The Incredibles
Even though it should cross $350M next weekend, it looks like it’ll finish around Stitch / Minecraft range of $420M-$425M while behind Zootopia 2 DOM total of $428.1M
Spiritual-Smoke-4605 on
saw this again last night, it has incredible animation but man the way it plays out feels like a movie targeted to babies. just nothing much to it
17 Comments
420-430m DOM final. Great numbers but good WOM is key if you want Zootopia or Inside Out numbers.
Damn. That‘s 1M below Sunday estimates. Still, really good.
COMPARISON
Super Mario Bros. vs Galaxy
1. wknd: 204M vs 190M (-14M)
2. wknd: 353M vs 307M (-46M)
Their difference will continue to increase with each upcoming week.
I still believe it‘ll finish with 425M+ (vs 574M) domestic and 1B+ (vs 1.36B) globally.
Even tho, it‘ll finish weaker than the first film, this is nonetheless a huge financial success!
But I hope they try a bit harder with their third film or else that one will showcase a further decrease. The next film can be Super Mario World, Super Mario Wonder, Super Mario Odyssey or a spin-off such as Donkey Kong, Luigi‘s Mansion…, they have a lot of options.

So basically you’re saying it’s already made its money back from production and marketing just from domestic tickets? I don’t know the split between movie theaters and studios so maybe it still has a way to go. But if you add domestic and international, I am sure they’re in profit now.
Starting today the weekday numbers are going to start dropping hard with no more spring break. Dont be surprised by an 82% drop from Sunday. How well Galaxy does going forward will all depend on the weekends.
I expect a 1.2B result and i think it’ll land around that, which is insanely good for such a quick sequel. The trilogy is all but confirmed and should pass the billy but after that, let it rest for a while before coming back, let other series breath and get time while mario comes back.
430M + 750M might be the split i believe.
Nearly $1M down from estimates. This is very reminiscent of Moana 2 in terms of huge opening ($389m worldwide opening) but weaker-than-expected reception. Will likely end up with a similar gross ($1.06B), which is significantly less than Zootopia 2’s gross *without* China: $1.21B.
Edit: Still a massive success for Illumination and Nintendo, who’ll likely see a big increase in merch and game sales.
I know there are obvious quality concerns but it’s not like Mario one was close to a masterpiece at all. The fact is that Illumination/Dreamwork sequels don’t always perform the same as Disney/Pixar sequels. A Disney sequel is almost always going to overperform the original due to Disney+, strong branding and large gaps between films. Versus Universal’s animation studios pump out sequels much faster.
This performance is almost identical to Moana 2. Both were highly anticipated sequels that got worse reception than expected (A- Cinemascore is weak for an animated movie) and had some mediocre legs after a massive 5 day opening. This will likely only barely cross the $1 billion mark like Moana 2 did, and I expect the third Mario movie will underperform a lot more if they don’t change their strategy.

TOP 10 biggest 2nd 3-day weekends for animated films at the US box office:
1. Inside Out 2 – 101M
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie – 92M
3. Frozen II – 86M
4. Incredibles 2 – 80M
5. The Lion King (2019) – 76M
6. Finding Dory – 73M
7. Shrek 2 – 72M
8. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie – 68M
9. Toy Story 4 – 59M
10. Toy Story 3 – 59M

The estimates came down from 71m to 69m and the actuals are 68m.
Huh? Revised down again?
$450M should be the target.
There is nothing for kids/families until Grogu and that film’s appeal is debateable. Sheep Detectives may offer some competition I guess but nothing major is being released until Toy Story 5.
They should’ve added Geno. It would’ve easily surpassed the og. /j
500M domestic dead best case is around 440M domestic at this point which is still the 2nd highest gross for illumination
Geez… it went way below expectations which we know that mixed WOM is affecting its legs since animated sequels like this don’t make as much as its predecessor had that aren’t Disney / Pixar sequels that are long gaps like Inside Out, Moana and Zootopia did and should soon with Toy Story, Frozen and The Incredibles
Even though it should cross $350M next weekend, it looks like it’ll finish around Stitch / Minecraft range of $420M-$425M while behind Zootopia 2 DOM total of $428.1M
saw this again last night, it has incredible animation but man the way it plays out feels like a movie targeted to babies. just nothing much to it