One thing I haven't really seen discussed on the sub is what the potential impact of the World Cup in summer. The only major summer movie coming out after the World Cup is Brand New Day, and the World Cup ends on the same weekend when Odyssey comes out.
Moana, Toy Story, and Minions could see their international numbers be a lot less than in normal circunstances, and if any movie is released on the day of a major match, it could be significantly affected
What’s your take on this?
by Man_Random87
6 Comments
I think the World Cup might affect domestic numbers too, especially since we’re actually hosting the games.
The last time the World Cup was held in the summer, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom got a massive head start overseas before it opened a week later domestically.
Incredibles 2 also had staggered overseas releases specifically to avoid big match days in some territories.
Toy Story 5 should be ok. After learning 4 actually grew in admissions from 3, I feel reasonably confident it can get past $1B. Not as confident Minions and Moana will be able to overcome likely mediocre reception and the World Cup though. They’ll do fine but I expect both to finish well below $1B.
Doesn’t really cause much effect until the latter stages of the tournament so depends heavily on who makes it past the round of 16.
If England make it that far, expect Minions/Moana to be affected a lot out of the gate. That’s just one example because those are titles that do well in the U.K.
In Germany it’s always the worst time for cinemas during a world cup. So expect many movies, that get released between mid June and mid July to underperfom in Germany. Looking at you: Spielberg and Supergirl. Children’s movies are not that affected: So Minions & Monsters and Vaiana should do okay. Nolan is opening only during the last weekend of the World Cup. So The Odyssee should be fine.
I’d certainly expect some impact, but few people sit down and watch games all day long every day. If you really want to see a movie you’re going to find two hours to go see it.