Tracking for Animal Farm (pre-cinemacon) is low w/ current pace of presales matching ~ films that opened to ~$2.5M (presales to date more on par with a $$3.5M-4M OW). Given Animal Farm will have better walkups than faith based films (presale heavy as a genre), I’m thinking $2.5M-$5M.

small graph error – I used "true OW" instead of "adj OW" for Sketch (it opened midweek so it makes more sense to scale a quasi_OW as a normal percentage of the 7 day opening) you basically just need to increase Sketch by 2x to 2.15x. Basically, that puts sketch at $2.6M(d3R)/$2.9M(d7$)/3.4M (OW_comp_ratio). A/k/a instead of being the comp floor, it's in a scrum with films like Last Rodeo

Graph 1 = a pretty simple OW prediction formula over time (see caption), graph 2 = total presales to date, graph 3 = rate of presale growth (very important given roughly ~70% of total presales will occur after this point) and graph 3 is what's really powering the downside pessimism.

As graph 2 shows, Animal Farm started out the gate with the third highest presales (thus showing it clearly could have easily opened to >$10M with better reception) but presale pacing absolutely tanked 2 weeks or so ago when most decent sized films for Angel start to pick up the pace.

As graphs show, King of Kings' comp is wonky because of how much the growth of that film was supercharged by Cinemacon's mega successful "kidsgofree" campaign. I suspect Angel will roll out a campaign for Young Washington (strong early interest and Angel clearly sees it clearing $60M DOM) instead of the flagging Animal Farm.

Early comps for Angel's sub $4Mish OW films are warped simply because they sell almost nothing prior to the final 4 weeks or so of presales (Animal Farm is a real exception to Angel Studios presale trends I've observed).

I want to lean on Solo Mio as a comp because it's the film that, like Animal Farm, has the least overlap with the "target image" of an Angel Studios film/audience. Despite rough trailer reception, the "Animal Farm" concept + cast starpower is going to draw some more marginal audiences which is why I'm not pushing the upside to below $4M (see growth rate projections).