It's been really interesting watching the enthusiasm build for Backrooms as new promotional material is released, but I think the growing word-of-mouth is just part of the equation that will result in it becoming A24's highest opening domestic weekend ever and likely their highest grossing film of all time.
Kane Pixels is an established voice adapting his own niche/subcultural work with an in-built lore to a paying audience. Pixels' work is so popular that it even has detractors, people who say his vision of a collective memetic aesthetic and idea taints what's appealing about the concept in the first place, because he toys with the idea of filling these spaces with "monsters", but even the most ardent naysayer couldn't help but be impressed with the trailer, which forefronts the concept of the spaces driving the horror – because that's what made this IP and general internet cultural phenomenon that led A24 to making what will go down as one of the smartest talent acquisitions in modern film history. Liminal Spaces have become a universal online language for a particular brand of unease drawn from disorder in patterns. The IP is literally a spurred emotion, a feeling that is shared by countless people in a time when very little is truly monocultural or even crosses legibly to multiple audience quadrants. Pixels managed to stamp his flag with his interpretation early and definitively, and his audience will follow him to the theaters, along with more who will be drawn to the strange allure of the foundational idea of Backrooms.
One of the analogues being made is with Five Nights at Freddy's, which opened to 78m, and yet reporting is predicting 15-25m for this? I don't buy it. Blumhouse does those numbers in their sleep. The Conjuring made 40 off nothing but From the creator of Saw; Happy Death Day and Longlegs made 20+ off the back of great trailers. Horror has always been a genre with few pre-sales, tons of Friday and Saturday night walk-ups, and movies like Split, Smile, Escape Room, and Don't Breath all overperformed in the long run as people said "Dude, you gotta go see this shit", leading to continued sales. Of course, the most obvious comp is Markiplier, who leveraged his established audience into actualizing a passion project which paid off immensely. Iron Lung surprised the trades because they don't take YouTube culture seriously. It's debut trailer (posted 2 years ago) has 12m views. The final trailer, posted 4 months ago has 7m. Backrooms teaser, which was posted both on A24's YouTube page and Pixel's own page have 7m views collectively. The trailer, posted 5 days ago (!!!!) has 30m views already on A24 and Pixel's page combined, and another million on co-distributor Blumhouse's (their involvement should be sending off alarm bells for low opening predictors). Iron Lung did 17m first weekend and 40m domestic total – how much do you think this is going to do with what immediately looks to be a larger core audience and the actual potential that this movie very good and may have (pardon the pun) long legs?
I've been thinking really hard about whether my enthusiasm for the marketing is blinding my vision but as I was writing this and crunching the numbers I just couldn't see how this isn't going to be a HUGE opening for A24. If I had an easily accessible way of betting on the over for what Belloni and the like are gonna call for this I would stake everything I owned on it. Pixels and A24 have masterfully played their hand and people are buzzing. I'm getting extreme early Shyamalan vibes from Pixels and I think he's going to be a major voice in cinema if he wants to be. That, combined with Horror as a genres consistent ability to overperform and surprise the outlets that should have come to expect it by now tell me that this thing is going to be a huuuuuuuge opener, and probably continue to make money for quite a while if A24 let it. I'm going out on a limb and saying this is doing 40m at a minimum opening weekend and I am almost tempted to place it closer to Scream 7's massive unexpected yet entirely predictable 60m opening. If I'm wrong… I'm wrong, I can handle that, but I just don't think I will be on this one.
by jbrobro
11 Comments
I’m enjoying the viral marketing with the “real” commercials for Chiwetel’s character’s furniture store. I’m guessing we’ll be seeing more of them over the next couple weeks.
I wonder if the popularity of *Severance* might also lead some of its fans to check it out. Obviously they’re not exactly the same but both tapping into the same general vibe.
I’m the crazy one predicting $200M domestic.. I see the vision OP
Adding on, I don’t sense any negativity. Chiwetel has a good enough track record to get butts in seats. His presence alone elevates the film in people’s eyes. Plus they’re doing so much work but smartly in promotion. I think it’s gonna pay off with good demos. I think it will be a hit. $22-25 million opening is my prediction. The A24 brand is the franchise we’re watching. Almost like an anthology series.
I think there’s a chance this will beat out The Mandalorian and Grogu’s second weekend, opening at #1.
all i know is its the first movie in a while my 13 year old has said “Yo dad will you take me to Backrooms??”
There’s so many established Hollywood producers behind the scenes like Shawn Levy, James Wan, and Oz Perkins it feels like a Kane Parsons is just a hired hand for A24 to capitalize on the Backrooms popularity. It doesn’t feel like a indie festival breakout but just like a normal studio horror movie.
The better question is does the same audience who watch their YouTube videos for free going to a theater to support the film? We saw a good wave of people support Markiplier, but his grass roots campaign was not the same as A24 distribution marketing giant.
I’m so offline it hurts and way outside the target demo, but even I’ve seen some of the Backrooms stuff pop up in my algorithm, and I think the film will do well. I wouldn’t begin to make a guess as to the BO, but I think some of the hesitancy and lowball estimates are leftover “Snakes on a Plane”-era stuff about whether an Internet meme is going to actually get people to a theater. But I think that’s an outdated way of looking at it and this feels like it’s going to hit, possibly majorly.
As someone who doesn’t usually watch horror movies I’m pretty intrigued.
It’s a unique premise that is the type of thing I would think about when I was younger (Alternate worlds etc.)
I think the use of colour and space makes it really pop too
There’s going to be generations of box office watchers taken completely by surprise by this success.
Opening weekend over/under: $65 million domestic