During fall and winter, r/BoxOffice took part in a Long Range Forecast edition for many films. 4 weeks out from their premieres, we'd offer predictions for its domestic debut, domestic total and worldwide total.
And that leaves the question: how close we were on the predictions? That's the point of this, to grade our efforts. How do we do this? This is the model scale: A (less than 20% difference), B (20-34.9%), C (35-49.9%), D (50-64.9%) and F (over 65%). The scale was slightly changed, mainly cause to get an A+, it'd be almost impossible (to date, The Monkey remains the only film to get a perfect prediction across the whole board). So it was accomodated, now a film only needs to make within 19.9% to make it in the A range.
| Percentage Difference | Grade | Point Value |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6.9% | A+ | 10 |
| 7-12.9% | A | 9.5 |
| 13-19.9% | A– | 9 |
| 20-24.9% | B+ | 8.5 |
| 25-29.9% | B | 8 |
| 30-34.9% | B– | 7 |
| 35-39.9% | C+ | 6 |
| 40-44.9% | C | 5 |
| 45-49.9% | C– | 4 |
| 50-54.9% | D+ | 3 |
| 55-59.9% | D | 2 |
| 60-64.9% | D– | 1 |
| 65+% | F | 0 |
According to Box Office Mojo, the fall season begins the day after Labor Day weekend, and the winter season ends the Thursday before the first Friday in March. So those will be the films we grade. Why just grading it now? Because we wanted to wait one whole month after the last film premiered so we'd have a clear idea of where it's finishing. While some of the films in February are still in theaters, by this point, they earned like 97% of its money already.
So let's see how we did.
The Conjuring: Last Rites
Original thread: 20 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $36,310,000 | $84,006,121 | 131.3% | F |
| DOM | $97,826,315 | $177,756,445 | +81.7% | F |
| WW | $269,631,578 | $499,156,445 | +85.1% | F |
Overall grade: F
We were too conservative on this, not really expecting it to destroy any franchise record. Not bad for such a bad movie.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle
Original thread: 14 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $45,364,285 | $70,611,098 | +55.6% | D |
| DOM | $90,121,428 | $136,853,292 | +51.8% | D+ |
| WW | $595,039,285 | $741,766,751 | +24.6% | B+ |
Overall grade: C
We went a bit too low on the domestic front, but we still thought this would kill overseas. Whatever the case, a very strong performance.
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Original thread: 11 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $15,863,636 | $18,107,405 | +14.1% | A– |
| DOM | $40,950,000 | $44,996,590 | +9.8% | A |
| WW | $89,655,000 | $103,538,225 | +15.4% | A– |
Overall grade: A–
A very solid on-point prediction here.
The Long Walk
Original thread: 11 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $10,750,000 | $11,703,621 | +8.8% | A |
| DOM | $27,720,000 | $35,163,573 | +26.8% | B |
| WW | $52,636,363 | $62,871,590 | +19.4% | A– |
Overall grade: A–
Quite close to where we got it.
Spinal Tap II: The End Continues
Original thread: 9 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $3,355,555 | $1,612,395 | –52.0% | D+ |
| DOM | $7,372,222 | $2,508,554 | –66.0% | F |
| WW | $9,444,444 | $3,344,424 | –64.6% | D– |
Overall grade: D–
Not epic. This one didn't go to 11.
RIP Rob Reiner.
Him
Original thread: 14 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $24,550,000 | $13,251,560 | –46.1% | C– |
| DOM | $73,664,285 | $25,009,605 | –66.1% | F |
| WW | $109,410,714 | $27,834,512 | –74.6% | F |
Overall grade: D–
Don't you hate when something looks cool and has all the ingredients of a sleeper hit, only to fumble it in the finish line?
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
Original thread: 14 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $11,160,714 | $3,252,578 | –70.9% | F |
| DOM | $33,171,428 | $6,671,082 | –79.9% | F |
| WW | $68,471,428 | $22,393,413 | –67.3% | F |
Overall grade: F
Pathetic.
These predictions were brought to you by Burger King™.
One Battle After Another
Original thread: 19 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $30,078,947 | $22,000,387 | –26.9% | B |
| DOM | $99,500,000 | $72,618,074 | –27.1% | B |
| WW | $218,015,789 | $210,618,074 | –3.4% | A+ |
Overall grade: B+
A very eerie worldwide prediction. Whatever the case, this is not a box office success. But given the amount of Oscars it won, WB will be fine with it.
Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie
Original thread: 11 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $19,227,272 | $13,697,595 | –28.8% | B |
| DOM | $57,154,545 | $32,011,820 | –44.0% | C |
| WW | $152,354,545 | $80,524,218 | –47.2% | C– |
Overall grade: C+
Looks like some parents were fine skipping this. After all, why pay for something you can watch on Netflix for free?
The Strangers – Chapter 2
Original thread: 12 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $9,558,333 | $5,806,192 | –39.3% | C+ |
| DOM | $25,925,000 | $15,153,346 | –41.6% | C |
| WW | $37,583,333 | $21,921,749 | –41.7% | C |
Overall grade: C
It gets worse the second time around.
Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl
Original thread: 12 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW/DOM | $60,548,333 | $34,062,774 | –43.8% | C |
| WW | $93,927,272 | $50,062,774 | –46.8% | C– |
Overall grade: C
Unlike the other predictions, this was predicted the week prior, because it wasn't officially announced in anticipation.
Very impressive considering this played for just one weekend. But like The Eras Tour, the sub once again over-estimated the numbers.
The Smashing Machine
Original thread: 17 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $20,085,294 | $5,841,662 | –71.0% | F |
| DOM | $59,523,529 | $11,411,388 | –80.9% | F |
| WW | $113,617,647 | $21,131,147 | –81.5% | F |
Overall grade: F
Well, this is embarrassing. Worst ever wide release for the Rock wasn't in our cards. Remember when this had Oscar buzz? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Anemone
Original thread: 12 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $4,725,000 | $681,655 | –85.6% | F |
| DOM | $13,416,666 | $1,161,830 | –91.4% | F |
| WW | $33,316,666 | $1,500,311 | –95.5% | F |
Overall grade: F
In terms of over-estimating, I don't think we've ever had a film with over 90% in difference.
In fairness, you'd expect the Legend Daniel Day-Lewis's return to the big screen to spout so much enthusiasm. Negative reviews sank it.
Tron: Ares
Original thread: 20 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $38,905,263 | $33,241,433 | –14.6% | A– |
| DOM | $108,736,842 | $73,161,014 | –32.8% | B– |
| WW | $288,830,000 | $142,249,983 | –50.8% | D+ |
Overall grade: C+
We were already expecting a very soft performance, but it managed to come in even lower.
Here lies Jared Leto's leading man career. It won't be missed.
Roofman
Original thread: 15 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $10,826,666 | $8,108,861 | –25.2% | B |
| DOM | $34,580,000 | $22,739,882 | –34.3% | B– |
| WW | $62,166,666 | $34,725,610 | –44.2% | C |
Overall grade: B–
10 years ago, Roofman would've cleared $100 million worldwide. Today, however…
After the Hunt
Original thread: 14 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $4,264,285 | $1,529,394 | –64.2% | D– |
| DOM | $10,771,428 | $3,258,830 | –69.8% | F |
| WW | $18,871,428 | $9,438,040 | –50.0% | D+ |
Overall grade: D–
When it comes to "this had Oscar buzz" from 2025, perhaps this is the biggest fumble of them all.
Black Phone 2
Original thread: 12 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $21,418,181 | $27,332,040 | +27.6% | B |
| DOM | $63,318,181 | $77,378,880 | +22.2% | B+ |
| WW | $114,000,000 | $132,248,152 | +16.0% | A– |
Overall grade: B+
Given how shitty the past years have been to Blumhouse, it could've been worse.
Good Fortune
Original thread: 11 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $7,372,727 | $6,163,433 | –15.9% | A– |
| DOM | $18,545,454 | $16,585,758 | –10.6% | A |
| WW | $30,381,818 | $26,239,690 | –13.7% | A– |
Overall grade: A–
Original comedies continue struggling.
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Original thread: 12 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $19,625,000 | $8,887,255 | –54.8% | D+ |
| DOM | $69,716,666 | $22,638,297 | –67.6% | F |
| WW | $120,316,666 | $45,240,624 | –62.4% | D– |
Overall grade: D–
Born to run? I don't think so.
Regretting You
Original thread: 11 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $22,445,454 | $13,687,530 | –39.1% | C+ |
| DOM | $64,927,272 | $48,852,948 | –24.8% | B+ |
| WW | $141,009,090 | $90,452,948 | –35.9% | C+ |
Overall grade: B–
If you don't view this as a drama, but as a comedy, it's a much better watch.
Shelby Oaks
Original thread: 17 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $4,240,909 | $2,346,918 | –44.7% | C |
| DOM | $9,791,666 | $4,500,051 | –54.1% | D+ |
| WW | $14,945,454 | $8,140,300 | –45.6% | C– |
Overall grade: C–
I guess audiences didn't get Stuckmannized.
Bugonia
Original thread: 12 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $4,761,958 | $5,028,215 | +5.5% | A+ |
| DOM | $15,775,000 | $17,692,390 | +12.1% | A |
| WW | $51,550,000 | $43,354,563 | –15.9% | A– |
Overall grade: A
Very strong predictions in here.
Predator: Badlands
Original thread: 24 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $32,972,727 | $40,016,853 | +21.3% | B+ |
| DOM | $85,927,272 | $91,083,631 | +6.0% | A+ |
| WW | $219,154,166 | $184,561,056 | –15.8% | A– |
Overall grade: A–
We might have a bit optimistic with the worldwide gross, but it was still a great prediction.
Die My Love
Original thread: 15 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $3,413,333 | $2,614,660 | –23.4% | B+ |
| DOM | $8,106,666 | $5,515,263 | –32.0% | B– |
| WW | $15,633,333 | $11,920,168 | –23.8% | B+ |
Overall grade: B
You mean to tell me audiences didn't want to watch a film about post-partum depression? Shocked, shocked I tell you.
The Running Man
Original thread: 19 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $29,455,263 | $16,495,564 | –44.0% | C |
| DOM | $94,818,421 | $37,815,641 | –60.2% | D– |
| WW | $194,828,947 | $69,486,523 | –64.4% | D– |
Overall grade: D
Are we sure Glen Powell is a star? Edgar Wright's second flop in a row.
Now You See Me: Now You Don't
Original thread: 18 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $14,900,000 | $21,013,793 | +41.0% | C |
| DOM | $39,800,000 | $61,882,396 | +55.4% | D |
| WW | $111,794,444 | $241,703,965 | +116.2% | F |
Overall grade: D
For some reason, the sub was very pessimistic on its prospects. It over-performed, although it didn't overcome the fact that it became the franchise's lowest grossing film.
Keeper
Original thread: 14 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $7,546,428 | $2,527,627 | –66.6% | F |
| DOM | $20,071,428 | $4,200,165 | –79.1% | F |
| WW | $33,921,428 | $6,085,407 | –82.1% | F |
Overall grade: F
Lol.
Osgood Perkins has struck gold with Longlegs and The Monkey, so perhaps the expectation was that he would continue here. Welp, I guess everyone has one of those bad days.
Wicked: For Good
Original thread: 26 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $155,907,692 | $147,004,640 | –5.8% | A+ |
| DOM | $510,523,076 | $342,915,090 | –32.9% | B– |
| WW | $851,303,846 | $536,280,749 | –37.1% | C+ |
Overall grade: B
For all the talk on how the sub under-estimates female-skewing films, somehow we over-predicted both Wicked films. To be fair, perhaps the expectation was that For Good would fix some issues from the second half of the musical, which could lead to an increase. But nope, and that was reflected in its poor legs.
Rental Family
Original thread: 12 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $5,231,818 | $3,336,147 | –36.3% | C+ |
| DOM | $16,318,181 | $10,047,429 | –38.5% | C+ |
| WW | $29,829,166 | $26,585,129 | –10.9% | A |
Overall grade: B–
Another fine addition to the "This Had Oscar Buzz" 2025 Class.
Sisu: Road to Revenge
Original thread: 12 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $4,050,000 | $2,408,490 | –40.6% | C |
| DOM | $10,245,454 | $4,544,481 | –55.7% | D |
| WW | $21,141,666 | $9,811,703 | –53.6% | D+ |
Overall grade: D+
It's crazy how little interest was for a Sisu follow-up. Well, I guess they can't all be franchises.
Zootopia 2
Original thread: 29 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW (3-day) | $135,148,148 | $100,262,540 | –25.9% | B |
| OW (5-day) | $213,838,461 | $158,804,061 | –25.8% | B |
| DOM | $551,417,857 | $428,112,663 | –22.4% | B+ |
| WW | $1,476,341,379 | $1,867,516,078 | +26.4% | B |
Overall grade: B
This is a weird case. We projected high numbers for this, but not in the way you're thinking.
We really over-estimated Zootopia 2 domestically, and yet we under-estimated it worldwide. We knew it would outgross Moana 2, but it doesn't look like anyone expected it to become the biggest ever American animated film.
Hamnet
Original thread: 13 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $4,806,666 | $2,312,185 | –51.9% | D+ |
| DOM | $25,577,692 | $24,208,900 | –5.4% | A+ |
| WW | $69,352,307 | $103,649,509 | +49.4% | C– |
Overall grade: C+
A very wild range. We fail the opening weekend, get insanely close to its domestic total, but we didn't expect it to become such a big performer worldwide.
Five Nights at Freddy's 2
Original thread: 17 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $62,070,588 | $64,007,430 | +3.1% | A+ |
| DOM | $138,070,588 | $127,730,290 | –7.5% | A |
| WW | $266,947,058 | $238,569,111 | –10.7% | A |
Overall grade: A
Incredible prediction. A lot of money, even though it still failed to hit the 2x multiplier like its predecessor, and that's with the benefit of holidays.
Ella McCay
Original thread: 12 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $3,710,000 | $2,020,541 | –45.6% | C– |
| DOM | $9,750,000 | $4,033,242 | –58.7% | D |
| WW | $17,240,000 | $4,568,645 | –73.5% | F |
Overall grade: D
We knew this would flop, but it managed to go even worse than anyone thought. But hey, at least Disney got a new Simpsons Movie out of here.
Silent Night, Deadly Night
Original thread: 9 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $2,496,666 | $1,023,784 | –59.0% | D |
| DOM | $5,865,555 | $1,495,324 | –74.6% | N/A |
| WW | $8,958,888 | $5,586,884 | –37.3% | C+ |
Overall grade: C–
The domestic total won't be graded, mainly because the film only lasted one week in theaters. Or at least, only the reported numbers. It wouldn't be fair to include it, given we didn't know it would last very little.
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Original thread: 32 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $135,509,381 | $89,160,860 | –34.3% | B– |
| DOM | $646,154,882 | $404,165,413 | –37.5% | C+ |
| WW | $2,243,528,368 | $1,486,640,607 | –33.8% | B– |
Overall grade: B–
For the first time since 1989, James Cameron did not over-perform projections. A clear success all around, but the $847 million drop from The Way of Water is concerning.
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
Original thread: 24 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $22,749,166 | $15,611,344 | –31.4% | B– |
| DOM | $111,614,782 | $71,068,170 | –36.4% | C+ |
| WW | $233,842,173 | $168,425,221 | –38.0% | C+ |
Overall grade: C+
Yeah, seems like the SpongeBob franchise has peaked at the box office.
The Housemaid
Original thread: 17 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $12,149,375 | $19,010,430 | +56.4% | D |
| DOM | $59,471,176 | $126,432,462 | +112.5% | F |
| WW | $118,833,125 | $397,911,102 | +234.8% | F |
Overall grade: D–
There were questions over how popular the book would be, so we were a bit conservative with over $100 million worldwide. Turns out it's very popular!
Is This Thing On?
Original thread: 14 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $3,397,142 | $2,303,849 | –32.2% | B– |
| DOM | $15,090,714 | $6,185,385 | –59.1% | D |
| WW | $27,740,714 | $9,779,718 | –64.8% | D– |
Overall grade: D+
Bradley Cooper might have had some good luck at the Oscars with his first two films as directors, but this came in pretty much without any fanfare.
Anaconda
Original thread: 12 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW (3-day) | $19,041,666 | $14,502,218 | –23.9% | B+ |
| OW (4-day) | $26,825,000 | $23,556,097 | –12.2% | A |
| DOM | $77,783,333 | $65,098,148 | –16.4% | A– |
| WW | $152,666,666 | $134,974,943 | –11.6% | A |
Overall grade: A–
A bit below what we expected, but we weren't far off from this.
Marty Supreme
Original thread: 10 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW (3-day) | $9,390,000 | $17,722,410 | +88.7% | F |
| OW (4-day) | $13,910,000 | $27,258,084 | +95.9% | F |
| DOM | $46,060,000 | $96,010,649 | +108.4% | F |
| WW | $87,430,000 | $179,317,626 | +105.0% | F |
Overall grade: F
If there was any doubt if Timmy had star power, case closed.
Song Sung Blue
Original thread: 9 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW (3-day) | $6,977,777 | $7,073,630 | +1.3% | A+ |
| OW (4-day) | $10,800,000 | $11,499,085 | +6.4% | A+ |
| DOM | $36,444,444 | $39,185,290 | +7.5% | A |
| WW | $71,344,444 | $57,862,564 | –18.9% | A– |
Overall grade: A
We could've been so close to the A+ if we went with a lower overseas gross.
The Testament of Ann Lee
Original thread: 8 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $2,675,000 | $558,133 | –79.2% | F |
| DOM | $9,400,000 | $2,515,020 | +73.3% | F |
| WW | $18,562,500 | $3,921,769 | –78.9% | F |
Overall grade: F
The Death of Ann Lee.
SOULM8TE
Original thread: 6 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $5,450,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| DOM | $12,550,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| WW | $20,366,666 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
We predicted it, even though there was absolutely no marketing, just in case. And just a few days later, it was pulled off the schedule. There goes the M3GAN universe.
Primate
Original thread: 11 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $9,081,818 | $11,155,908 | +22.8% | B+ |
| DOM | $26,209,090 | $25,635,665 | –2.2% | A+ |
| WW | $49,580,000 | $41,562,111 | –16.2% | A– |
Overall grade: A–
10 years ago, this could've easily made $100 million on a weak January. But alas.
Greenland 2: Migration
Original thread: 9 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $11,166,666 | $8,401,148 | –24.8% | B+ |
| DOM | $28,555,555 | $17,770,308 | –37.8% | C+ |
| WW | $73,022,222 | $44,760,172 | –38.8% | C+ |
Overall grade: B–
Another Gerard Butler flop. What else is new?
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple
Original thread: 11 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $23,250,909 | $12,521,327 | –46.2% | C– |
| DOM | $55,362,727 | $25,147,583 | –54.6% | D+ |
| WW | $122,990,909 | $58,419,662 | –52.6% | D+ |
Overall grade: D+
An unfortunately bad performance. Is Sony still planning to go ahead with the third film?
Mercy
Original thread: 10 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $8,275,000 | $10,809,178 | +30.6% | B– |
| DOM | $19,700,000 | $24,390,303 | +23.8% | B+ |
| WW | $45,230,000 | $54,609,917 | +20.7% | B+ |
Overall grade: B
Well, there's your answer over whether Chris Pratt can truly open an original title.
Return to Silent Hill
Original thread: 7 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $4,216,666 | $3,252,000 | –22.9% | B+ |
| DOM | $12,085,714 | $5,544,971 | –54.2% | D+ |
| WW | $28,328,571 | $47,542,512 | +67.8% | F |
Overall grade: C–
A bizarre performance. It was DOA domestically, yet for some reason, the film greatly over-performed in China. Of all the films to surprise there…
Send Help
Original thread: 10 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $13,064,000 | $19,102,299 | +46.2% | C– |
| DOM | $39,347,000 | $64,699,977 | +64.4% | D |
| WW | $80,871,000 | $94,006,663 | +16.1% | A– |
Overall grade: C
The good news is that the film over-performed projections domestically. The bad news, for some reason, is that it didn't fare well outside America. Very weird, considering there was a lack of competition.
Iron Lung
Original thread: 10 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $6,810,000 | $18,190,786 | +167.1% | F |
| DOM | $14,751,250 | $41,111,208 | +178.6% | F |
| WW | $19,065,000 | $51,226,173 | +168.6% | F |
Overall grade: F
E.
The Moment
Original thread: 7 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $3,730,000 | $1,630,399 | –56.3% | D |
| DOM | $8,434,285 | $3,909,839 | –53.7% | D+ |
| WW | $14,082,857 | $5,119,862 | –63.7% | D– |
Overall grade: D
Not brat at all.
The Strangers – Chapter 3
Original thread: 8 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $3,688,750 | $3,472,554 | –5.9% | A+ |
| DOM | $8,013,750 | $8,560,986 | +6.8% | A+ |
| WW | $13,590,000 | $9,721,251 | –28.5% | B |
Overall grade: A
And not a single fuck was given.
Wuthering Heights
Original thread: 15 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $49,150,000 | $32,801,647 | –33.3% | B– |
| DOM | $111,073,333 | $83,863,000 | –24.5% | B+ |
| WW | $227,480,000 | $236,363,000 | +3.9% | A+ |
Overall grade: B+
Not quite high domestically, but it made more than made up for it overseas.
Goat
Original thread: 15 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $21,766,666 | $27,202,138 | +24.9% | B+ |
| DOM | $75,380,000 | $100,865,000 | +33.8% | B– |
| WW | $146,340,000 | $180,865,000 | +23.5% | B+ |
Overall grade: B
Quite a bit better than we thought.
Crime 101
Original thread: 12 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $11,441,666 | $14,251,834 | +24.5% | B+ |
| DOM | $31,216,666 | $36,451,306 | +16.7% | A– |
| WW | $67,483,333 | $67,851,306 | +0.5% | A+ |
Overall grade: A–
Man, we were so fucking close to the worldwide total. Just $367K off.
Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die
Original thread: 7 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $3,900,000 | $3,644,275 | –6.6% | A+ |
| DOM | $10,600,000 | $8,431,443 | –20.5% | B+ |
| WW | $18,600,000 | $9,312,884 | –50.0% | D+ |
Overall grade: B–
Very on point domestically, but the lack of overseas markets clearly ruined it.
Psycho Killer
Original thread: 6 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $5,550,000 | $1,613,435 | –71.0% | F |
| DOM | $13,166,666 | $2,555,070 | –81.6% | F |
| WW | $21,000,000 | $2,555,070 | –87.9% | F |
Overall grade: F
This is pathetic.
How to Make a Killing
Original thread: 5 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $4,580,000 | $3,488,298 | –23.9% | B+ |
| DOM | $10,800,000 | $7,819,436 | –27.6% | B |
| WW | $17,020,000 | $13,310,018 | –21.8% | B+ |
Overall grade: B+
Even when he went the A24 route, Glen Powell disappointed again.
I Can Only Imagine 2
Original thread: 6 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $11,783,333 | $7,750,583 | –34.3% | B– |
| DOM | $38,533,333 | $18,444,161 | –52.2% | D+ |
| WW | $40,500,000 | $18,588,790 | –54.2% | D+ |
Overall grade: C–
Looks like the boom for Christian titles is declining at the box office. It doesn't get any clearer than the fact that this film's domestic total is only a little above the original's opening weekend ($17.1 million).
Scream 7
Original thread: 26 users predicted.
| Prediction | Long Range Forecast | Actual Gross | % Difference | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OW | $30,495,833 | $63,615,172 | +108.6% | F |
| DOM | $74,920,833 | $118,671,000 | +58.3% | D |
| WW | $118,288,461 | $204,071,000 | +72.5% | F |
Overall grade: D–
There were two expectations coming in: that the film would decrease at the box office, and that it would earn a negative reception. Only one of those was correct.
Final Stats
We predicted 59 films during this edition, although only 58 are eligible for this (SOULM8TE didn't have anything). So that leaves the following stats:
| Grade | Number of Films | Share | Titles |
|---|---|---|---|
| A+ | 0 | 0.00% | None. |
| A | 4 | 6.77% | Bugonia, Five Nights at Freddy's 2, Song Sung Blue, The Strangers – Chapter 3 |
| A– | 7 | 11.86% | Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, The Long Walk, Good Fortune, Predator: Badlands, Anaconda, Primate, Crime 101 |
| B+ | 4 | 6.77% | One Battle After Another, Black Phone 2, Wuthering Heights, How to Make a Killing |
| B | 5 | 8.47% | Die My Love, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2, Mercy, Goat |
| B– | 6 | 10.16% | Roofman, Regretting You, Rental Family, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Greenland 2: Migration, Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die |
| C+ | 4 | 6.77% | Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie, Tron: Ares, Hamnet, The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants |
| C | 3 | 5.08% | Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, The Strangers – Chapter 2, Send Help |
| C– | 4 | 6.77% | Shelby Oaks, Silent Night, Deadly Night, Return to Silent Hill, I Can Only Imagine 2 |
| D+ | 3 | 5.08% | Sisu: Road to Revenge, Is This Thing On?, 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple |
| D | 4 | 6.77% | The Running Man, Now You See Me: Now You Don't, Ella McCay, The Moment |
| D– | 6 | 10.16% | Spinal Tap II: The End Continues, Him, After the Hunt, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, The Housemaid, Scream 7 |
| F | 9 | 15.25% | The Conjuring: Last Rites, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey, The Smashing Machine, Anemone, Keeper, Marty Supreme, The Testament of Ann Lee, Iron Lung, Psycho Killer |
Like previous editions, F won again. Like the previous edition (March 2025 thru August 2025), this was the least amount of Fs we got. And in the case of many of the titles there, there's some that were simply dumped without any fanfare.
Even more encouraging news: 11 films got in the A range, the biggest we've ever had, including four getting a straight A. While we didn't have a single A+ here, you have to understand that getting an A+ is insanely hard. You have to be correct on all three aspects, and be off by just 6.9% at most. Generally speaking, anything over B– is a win, so we were on point with at least 26 films on this edition. Close to half of what we predicted.
The New Season
With fall and winter out, it's time to look at spring and summer. These have been our predictions so far:
| Movie | Release Date | Distributor | Domestic Debut | Domestic Total | Worldwide Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoppers | March 6 | Disney | $34,765,000 | $124,890,000 | $315,951,250 |
| The Bride! | March 6 | Warner Bros. | $22,016,666 | $62,515,384 | $135,469,230 |
| Reminders of Him | March 13 | Universal | $16,928,571 | $53,557,142 | $100,000,000 |
| Project Hail Mary | March 20 | Amazon MGM | $50,448,387 | $176,487,096 | $462,584,375 |
| Ready or Not 2: Here I Come | March 20 | Searchlight | $13,570,833 | $36,691,666 | $71,758,333 |
| They Will Kill You | March 27 | Warner Bros. | $7,022,222 | $19,188,888 | $37,244,444 |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | April 1 | Universal | $141,007,894 (3-day) $196,336,842 (5-day) | $533,402,631 | $1,304,710,526 |
| The Drama | April 3 | A24 | $11,391,666 | $33,450,000 | $65,008,333 |
| You, Me & Tuscany | April 10 | Universal | $10,700,000 | $32,942,857 | $45,785,714 |
| The Christophers | April 10 | Neon | $2,000,000 | $3,840,000 | $7,900,000 |
| Lee Cronin's The Mummy | April 17 | Warner Bros. | $15,775,000 | $39,558,333 | $86,445,454 |
| Mother Mary | April 17 | A24 | $4,000,000 | $9,972,727 | $14,940,000 |
| Michael | April 24 | Lionsgate / Universal | $107,819,444 | $331,319,444 | $888,342,500 |
From these, you can see that we underestimated Hoppers and Project Hail Mary. And we also flopped with The Bride!. But we're very confident that The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Michael will drive April to one of its best ever years.
Final Notes
This model has helped with building a consensus. Not all 1 million users participate, but it still helps us in seeing where we stand on many films. That's why we're inviting you to participate. The more, the merrier. We don't lose anything here.
We're not always right. But then again, who is?
See you on Wednesday, where we'll predict The Devil Wears Prada 2.
Thanks for reading this post! Results for spring and summer will be posted on late September.
by SanderSo47