this film is a black comedy with a budget of $125m starring one of the most recognizable movie stars in the world in his first major role in an original film in over a decade. personally I don’t see this being profitable because it’d have to make over $300m and I don’t have a good eye on just how massive of a draw tom cruise will be for a film that’s out of his usual blockbuster action genre.
right now, I’m thinking it will be another One Battle After Another for Warner Bros in the sense that it’s going to be a critically acclaimed awards player that ends up being unprofitable. it’s directed by Inarittu who’s also done Birdman and the Revenant (both amazing imo) so I feel pretty confident it will be good in terms of quality. I’m currently predicting it to make somewhere around $150m-$200m solely off of Tom Cruise’s name
what would be a realistic prediction for this type of film and will Cruise’s reputation as the most bankable star in Hollywood hurt if this ends up flopping?
by wallabyenthusiast
15 Comments
OBAA numbers perhaps
Ultra arthouse big budget film? At best we’re looking at Marty supreme or OBAA numbers, but that’s only if this is as accessible. 90m domestic is probably the ceiling.
We dont have enough information to make a good enough guess. If it’s wild enough it could spark conversation and interest. It could also be too indie to capture the mainstream. Who know? Us several months from now when we know more.
Im not a big Innaritu guy, I think it could totally flounder unless its really highly acclaimed. Top out at 75 domestic?
200-300M
Iñárritu delivered boxoffice hits in the past and this time it’s a comedy starring Tom Cruise. I think the OBBA numbers at least
From top to bottom, the director, cinematographer, this cast is going to be fucking incredible. I’ve been waiting for Cruise to get away from the MI films to do something weird and out there again. And with Iñárritu I’m just so glad we’re getting him and Lubezki together again I’m just so ready for this!!
I think you nailed it, it’s an actor and director gunning for an original film, but it’s an original comedy with a $125 million dollar budget which means it’s probably dead on arrival. At the same time I also agree that it’ll probably get plenty of critical acclaim and praise, since we haven’t seen Cruise in a dedicated comedy role since his cameo in Tropic Thunder, which he was the stand out among that entire cast. I think everyone wants this movie to do well but an original comedy making $300 million will be a tough uphill battle.
Probably barely crossing 200 milion worldwide.
Are the rumors about budgets for movies we barely know anything about starting already?
If the WOM is great, 400 shouldn’t be a problem. If The Revenant can make 500m and it’s longer and slower paced, I believe anything is possible!
150-250m
Slightly higher than OBAA. Best would be like $100M DOM, $250M WW.
OBAA numbers. But with a slightly lower budget, and it being a co production. It will likely avoid losing as much as that did (however this likely won’t be an Oscar sweep like OBAA was).
i think obaa numbers or maybe a bit less. i don’t think this movie will end up being as good as obaa but it could benefit from not obviously being about us politics like obaa is (it could still be about us politics but i doubt it will be as obvious about it as obaa)
i do think there’s a good chance tom cruise and john goodman win oscars for it though
If Tom’s transformation is alluring and the character comes across as interesting, i think it will raise the movie’s profitability. The whole marketing of the movie seems to be leaning heavilly on that thus far. I won’t be putting this one past the 300m-400m range, at its best case scenario.