BOT Presale Tracking (July 10). THU Comp: Fly Me to the Moon ($1.20M), Longlegs ($3.90M), and Deadpool & Wolverine ($33.42M). EA/THU/EA+THU Comp: Twisters ($1.35M/$4.62M/$6.25M). The Lion King Re-Release looking to easily beat 2024 Pixar Re-Releases.

[BoxOfficeTheory Presale Tracking](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/page/911/#comments)

[**USA Showtimes As of July 5**](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4697379)

[Presales Data (Google Sheets Link)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zRjKpNOjPCBIgUULoyXyj5sBGMuU9owswn7bMfz1WSE/edit#gid=0)

[BoxOfficeReport Previews](http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html)

**Quorum Updates:**

– [July 10](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4699378)

– [July 8](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4698392)

– [July 5](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4697281)

– [July 3](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4696790)

– [July 1 Weekly Unaided Awareness](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4696263)

– [July 1](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4696262)

– [June 28](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4694827)

– [June 26](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4694224)

**DOMESTIC PRESALES**

– keysersoze123 (One fact to note is due to Hurricane Beryl, theaters in houston are shutdown. So they are not returning data even for future movies. Not sure how long the impact would be. I expect it to be normal by Deadpool for sure. May be even Twisters. But how about this week? Only folks around that area can confirm **(July 8)**.)

– keysersoze123 (*replying to TwoMisfits*: Based on what I see in T-life its only for shows on 9-14 dates. Just adding some life to otherwise quiet week **(July 4)**.)

– [M37](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32392-inside-out-2-weekend-thread-155m-dom-140m-os-summer-is-back-disney-saves-the-day-%F0%9F%98%82%F0%9F%98%A2%F0%9F%98%A1%F0%9F%A4%A2%F0%9F%98%B1%F0%9F%98%B0%F0%9F%98%92%F0%9F%A5%B1%F0%9F%98%B3/?do=findComment&comment=4688756) (Films that appeal to an older, whiter, and generally more aware (cinephile) audience tend to have weaker walk-ups (Elvis, Flower moon, etc). However, that can be mitigated if said film also attracts a more GA crowd, particularly in middle and lower tier markets, where presales are a much smaller share of the final number, like TGM and Indy 5 both did (to an extent, not on the level of the other films mentioned [GxK, Equalizer, Creed, Apes, Minions, Kung Fu Panda, Inside Out]). I would expect Twisters to behave more like the TGM/Indy 5 type films, and probably not skew quite as old, so it should be decent if unspectacular on walk-ups. And we’re also still 6 weeks away, and the fandom is soft, not one that needs to buy so far in advance (as contrasted to Deapool), so it should do fine. Currently thinking it ends up in $50M+ range for OW, in range of Apes (and Bad Boys 4), solid but not nothing special. Or it could go more the way of Furiosa, where it doesn’t connect with the GA, and that weaker fandom means the floor is much lower **(June 14)**.)

– TwoMisfits (Just announced T-Mobile Atom deal… 7/9 $5 to ANY movie in any form. Usable July 9-14 (not sure if you can prebook for later like normal deals, but it’s looking unlikely, so this will not bump Deadpool). Should help next week be a good week… **(July 4)**.)

– Unfitclock (So regal is doing a summer movie express where they’re putting older movies in theaters for a $1 at 11am throughout the summer every week I took a look just out of curiosity and every single movies throughout the summer is completely full **(June 17)**.)

**Fly Me to the Moon Average EA Estimate / THU Comp *assuming $1M EA for abracadabra1998*: $1.21M / $1.20M**

– abracadabra1998 ($0.50M EA (Saturday EA) and $0.75M THU comp. Still not really seeing a million in previews 🙁 **(July 10)**. Still pretty bad, but maybe (unlikely) it will have a NHF-type of path with a great surge these last two days **(July 9)**. Accelerated a bit, really needs to grow now **(July 8)**. Weak stuff, but not hitting the panic button just yet. The EA for this looked terrible up until T-1 and then it blew up here **(July 7)**. Sadly was busy and missed the EA for this yesterday at T-1 Hour 🙁 still got today though. This is AMAZING growth, and I would probably guess around $500k for today. If yesterday acted similarly, around 1 million for both days of EA, like @katnisscinnaplex suggested, makes a lot of sense! **(July 6)**. Pretty weak stuff for EA. THU doesn’t make much sense to look into this much rn, will have to wait for after EA to see how it actually does **(July 4)**.)

– AniNate (I’d like to get on the Fly Me to the Moon hype train but I’m really not seeing it here. Still zero Friday or Saturday sales in Canton **(July 7)**.)

– crazymoviekid ($1.35M THU and $3.58M FRI Comp. Some rises for THU, not much, will say $1.5M for now. Looking best for FRI around $3M-$4M **(July 9)**. Wide variety. No sign yet, but best leaning $1.5M **(July 8)**.)

– el sid (Counted today for tomorrow, had surprisingly bad 129 sold tickets in 6 theaters (no shows in the AMC in NY so far). Comps (without comparison numbers today because they make it look too bad I think; always counted in the same 6 theaters and on Wednesday for Thursday): Bikeriders (1.5M from previews including EA shows) had 208 sold tickets, The Lost City (2.5M true Thursday) had 402, The Fall Guy (2.35M true Thursday) had 760 and Challengers (1.9M – I think that included EA shows too) had 589 sold tickets. Well, I didn’t expect great presales but way better numbers than that **(July 10)**.)

– filmlover (Didn’t know Fly Me to the Moon was having two days worth of preview showings, it’s selling well tonight too **(July 6)**. Early Access still looking good. Some decently full theaters (keep in mind though it’s not getting the biggest auditoriums due to Despicable Me and the other holdovers still making money keeping the biggest ones) **(July 4)**. Was the surprise screening last night for those tracking those things **(July 2)**. It has Early Access shows next Friday (7/5). It’s actually selling pretty well so far near me **(June 28)**.)

– katnisscinnaplex ($1.41M EA Total and $1.1M THU Comp. Stayed above 1m average so that’s one positive. Will need around +40% today to keep pace though **(July 10)**. Should easily get to 1m and I could see upwards of 1.5m with shows being on the weekend **(July 6)**.)

– keysersoze123 (One word is ouch. Probably looking high single digits OW due to the star cast. | There is no chance for Fly me to beat longlegs. I dont think there is any data where they are even close. At my end its 5x plus in comps **(July 9)**.)

– TalismanRing ($1.61M THU Comp. Again, very low numbers – so wildly disparate comps **(July 10)**. Low numbers and too few similar type of films to get any good comps **(July 9)**. THU and FRI sales much better than last week’s early access – which sold 2 tickets to each show over 2 different days showings. Not the kind of films that has significant pre-sales at my theater. Anyone But You sold 1 ticket for Thur as of Mon and 11 the day of previews **(July 7)**.)

– Unfitclock (It looks like the early access is decent but next weekend looks really strong **(July 3)**.)

**Longlegs Average THU Comp *assuming $3M for keysersoze123*: $3.90M**

– abracadabra1998 ($3.42M THU Comp. Killers is a huge outlier, but everything else seems to be pointing at $3.5-3.75 Million. However, there is sure to be an ATP adjustment to be made here. I am quite unsure that I will be able to give T-1 Hour numbers here, but for now I am thinking something around $3.25 Million **(July 10)**. Still don’t think that normal horror comps don’t make much sense (they would point to something in the 5-6 Million range, but capacity isn’t there yet and I think this will be way more front loaded), but I feel better after seeing everyone else’s numbers also pointing to something crazy (I thought I was way overindexing first). Let’s see what the last two days look like because theaters are indeed adding more showtimes **(July 9)**. Lmao wtf is going on here. Absurdly high capacity rate right now at 20%, but still tiny number of seats and showings **(July 8)**. I know these look like super random comps, but to me this is clearly not behaving like a normal horror movie here, instead playing to the cinephile-heavy audience that my market can bring out. Going to roll with these and only had horror comps at probably T-1 Hour or so **(July 7)**. This is REALLY strong stuff, and if I comped this with normal horror flicks the $ value would be in the 4-5 Million. But this is not normal horror, it’s way more pre-sales frontloaded with how cinephile-ish it is, and I don’t want to mislead people who just look at the average comp value **(July 4)**.)

– AniNate (I wouldn’t have expected Canton, Ohio to be a huge Thursday preview draw but I can see it being similarly frontloaded as Maxxxine. Maybe word of mouth will work in its favor better, though **(July 9)**. Is a bit of a weekend presence for Longlegs which is encouraging **(July 8)**. Longlegs first preview show is almost at capacity, though weekend sales are still fairly sparse (at least there are a few though) **(July 7)**.)

– AnthonyJPHer (It’s way too late to properly track Longlegs, but at my theater it’s sold at least 24 tickets for Thursday which surprised me. I glanced at the other theaters and it looks like it’s selling pretty well in other theaters too **(July 8)**.)

– crazymoviekid ($6.07M THU and $13.62M FRI Comp. THU comps still too suspiciously high, but Theater 1 ain’t climbing as high as normal horror now, will still say $3M-$4M for now. Some wild comps, but looking somewhere between $4M-$6M **(July 9)**. WAYYYY too high with some stellar WOM presales. Current prediction is $4M-$5M, but realistic is dropping down to $2M-$2.5M **(July 8)**.)

– DAJK (Hadn’t bothered even looking at Longlegs until today. And all I can say woah… unless this is massively frontloaded, I don’t see why this can’t do Don’t Worry Darling numbers. The low theater count could hurt it, but based on these presales 20M doesn’t seem out of the question **(July 9)**.)

– el sid (As I said elsewhere, very good presales for Longlegs in my theaters too, namely yesterday it had already 1.022 (!) sold tickets for Thursday (and the Friday presales look good too). The presales also in “my” theaters are definitely very good and the number of shows rapidly jumped from only 13 on Saturday to 34 yesterday **(July 10)**.)

– Flip ($4.48M THU Comp. For FRI, the IO2 FRI comp is going to plummet (plus I think it underindexed a fair amount for me) but it’s encouraging that it’s not very frontloaded. However, there is the same problem Thursday has where there isn’t much space for growth in the current shows; more need to be added **(July 9)**. More than doubled my goal, mainly due to two more shows being added. The only problem is that these shows are later in the night, so growth + walkups shouldn’t be that strong. Tomorrow hopefully 1 or 2 more shows will be added (to at least equal Watchers) and at least 80 tickets sold **(July 9)**. Show count is still very low (only one 11pm show has been added), and there’s definitely a fair amount overindexing. Hopefully tomorrow it can gain 35 more seats sold, but it will be at the limit of the current capacity **(July 8)**. It’s growing very well, but with two caveats: the show count is still very low and probably won’t go past 8 in the end, and there’s definitely a fair amount overindexing **(July 6)**. 4 showtimes/144 tickets sold (+12). 3.13x Watchers (T-8) [3.13m]. .66x AQP Day One (T-8) [4.51m]. Another strong day. Hopefully more shows will be added because otherwise growth will stagnate **(July 3)**. 4 showtimes/132 tickets sold (+33). Really strong day. Should pass Watchers (T-0) tomorrow, but if it will go higher it’s dependent on more showtimes being added **(July 2)**. 4 showtimes/99 tickets sold (+21). More shows still need to be added. Very close to Watchers T-1 **(July 1)**. 4 showtimes/78 tickets sold. More shows need to be added but this is pretty strong, just a bit below Watchers T-3, and even ahead of Bad Boys T-11 **(June 27)**.)

– jeffthehat ($3.67M THU Comp.)

– katnisscinnaplex ($2.63M SizeAdjusted Comp. Longlegs may add some more preview shows, but don’t expect too many. This is pretty normal for movies with previews starting at 7pm. Only so many times available at night **(July 9)**.)

– keysersoze123 (Not a day with major acceleration but pace is still great. Should be enough for double digit OD with previews even with lower ATP. I will stick with low 20s OW. | There is no chance for Fly me to beat longlegs. I dont think there is any data where they are even close. At my end its 5x plus in comps **(July 9)**. I could be off on the OW. So far release is small. But I am expecting growth due to great reactions and sales seen so far. it has many shows that are filled and so show more shows would be added for sure. Plus all the reports for that movie here have been promising. That is why I went big 🙂. | 3m+ previews and low 20s OW. I am expecting big growth in shows tomorrow. This includes shows impacted by hurricane but the amount of the shows is limited in that region for it so far. So difference is couple of % only **(July 8)**. I am sure longlegs would open bigger than Maxxxine for sure **(July 7)**. I think its going for 1.5-2m in previews at this point. May be OW in low teens? **(July 6)**. Its previews sales are robust but very small release. I think it will hit double digits but how far it can go will depend on how many shows it will add in final week **(July 5)**.)

– Rorschach ($3.01M THU and $11.88M FRI Comp. Ludicrous to think that it’ll actually end up being that high, but the fact that it’s doing this well this early in the week is an encouraging sign. Personally very excited to track this and see where it ends up **(July 8)**.)

– TalismanRing ($6.04M THU Comp. Thur: 54/512 (2 showings). This is higher than AQP3 which had 43/2528 as of opening week Monday. 38 for Friday with 5 showings. Both 7pm slots for Thur & Fri are where 90% of the sales are. **(July 7)**.)

– TheFlatLannister ($2.74M THU Comp. It’s doing pretty good. Not seeing anything crazy, probably underindexing here **(July 9)**.)

**The Lion King Re-Release**

– AniNate (They haven’t been promoting it much outside of the initial announcement. Not sure many people are even aware of it. Also doesn’t look like it’s getting a very wide release **(July 7)**. Looks like Lion King rerelease tix are now on sale. Doesn’t seem like it’s super-wide so probably ought to check expectations there **(July 1)**.)

– Flip (Lion King is looking eh for next weekend, will easily outgross the Pixar rereleases earlier this year at least **(July 7)**.)

**Twisters Average EA/Thursday/EA+THU Comp *excluding vafrow preview comps*: $1.35M/$4.62M/$6.25M**

– abracadabra1998 ($1.4M EA and $5.3M THU comp. Keeps doing really well in Minne! **(June 30)**. I must say, in “sort-of but not really but sometimes” tornado country, this is doing pretty well? **(June 27)**.)

– AniNate (Finally a little movement on Valley View’s weekend front. Lots of new Sunday sales at Canton, surprisingly **(July 7)**. It does seem like it’s selling pretty well in New York City based on a brief skim, so maybe it’s just an LA disinterest thing. | The thing I don’t like is that presales seem absolutely dead in Los Angeles. The EA screening at Baldwin hills is still only at one sale. Midwest definitely seems on board but I think they were hoping for at least a little coastal elite interest **(July 5)**. Twisters OW predict that I’m feeling (<$71M-$83M range), does seem to be selling pretty well in Caucasian-majority areas but I think it needs at least some level of urban interest to get those high numbers. I looked at the Cinemark closest to downtown LA and the early access screening has still only sold one ticket **(July 3)**. Definitely ramping up in the target dem market at least **(July 1)**. Urban/suburban divide on this movie getting a lot more pronounced. Starting to see some movement on the weekend planner side **(June 28)**.)

– cookieleeann (I’m kinda surprised how little Twisters has sold in PLF at one of my main local theaters. Usually when a big release is on there horizon, Dolby is the first thing to go followed by IMAX. I’m currently looking at showtimes for Dolby and IMAX and it’s so little sales **(July 8)**.)

– el sid (Definitely improved. It had, counted today for next Thursday, 799 sold tickets (with shows in 7 theaters). Best sales in the AMC in LA. 8 days left. Comps: The Fall Guy (2.35M from previews) had with 6 days left 534 sold tickets and Uncharted (3.7M) had with 3 days left = on Monday of the release week 868 sold tickets. Way better than 1 week ago where it had so few sold tickets in my theaters that I stopped counting (e.g. only 34 sold tickets in the AMC in NY – today it were 99). But let’s see how big the jump till next Monday is before I get too excited **(July 10)**.)

– Flip ($3.78M THU Comp. Pace is almost nonexistent **(July 8)**. At the non-plf theaters I track it’s doing meh, but it’s doing pretty strong at the PLF ones **(July 5)**. Meh **(June 30)**. Still hasn’t reached AQP’s first day of sales yet, but I think it’s slowly starting to accelerate **(June 28)**.)

– katnisscinnaplex ($6.65M EA+THU Comp. Found a few more PLF early shows listed on the normal listing for Wednesday that bumped EA up a good amount. I don’t love these comps, but I don’t know what would be much better. Godzilla x Kong is the closest in terms of total tickets sold across all movies I’ve tracked. Looking at overall movies in this range I’d say this is headed for somewhere between 5.5m and 6.5m, but there’s still a couple weeks left to move that up or down **(July 6)**.)

– keysersoze123 (Main action would be only in the release week for sure **(July 6)**. Ouch almost no pace. it barely grew in a week **(June 29)**. Still terrible at MTC1**(June 22)**. I am also not buying the huge predictions for Twisters ($71M+ OW). Its presales are not good and not sure the disaster genre is that easy a sell as well. I think 50m Ow is great for it. Plus I am surprised by the legs expected for the movie (2.88x-4.63x) **(June 21)**.)

– Porthos ($5.39M EA+THU Comp. Still, looking good here, but not breaking out. Yet **(July 5)**.)

– TheFlatLannister ($4.77M THU comp. Pace is not improving much **(July 5)**. No real movement **(July 1)**. Not much to add. Pace is still anemic **(June 28)**.)

– Tinalera (Was going to look at Twisters for Vancouver/Alberta… Yea…..llike a ghost town **(June 25)**.)

– vafrow (($1.3M EA comp, $7.58M EA rolled into previews comp, and $1.9M preview comp (no EA). Still not much. With full showtimes added, it only got one additional screen as well **(July 10)**. EA still is selling, but it’s been three days since a sale on Thursday previews. This remains very difficult to read **(July 9)**. Still not much movement **(July 8)**. Zero sales day **(July 7)**. It finally had some sales on previews. Hopefully it’s the start of some steady sales volume **(July 6)**. No movement on preview sales, but EA continues to do well. Further, I actually realized there were two more EA shows on the Wednesday I didn’t capture before (IMAX Q&A sessions). That means all five of my theatres have EA shows, and likely pulling demand away from official Thursday previews. The answer is probably in between somewhere of all these data points, but I really have no idea. I did a check on Friday sales and it’s 27 across the sample. A 3:1 ratio from Thursday would be a good sign usually, but not when the theory is that those Wednesday sales would otherwise be Thursday sales **(July 5)**. The approach on EA showings really throw this off. Thankfully I have the Fall Guy numbers which had a similar set up, but the issue is that I have four of my theatres with Wednesday EA showings that’s grabbing the bulk of the sales. This would be ahead of both Bad Boys and KOTPOTA otherwise. However, The Fall Guy did well in EA sales but it didn’t translate to a strong performance in the end **(June 29)**.)

**Deadpool and Wolverine Average Thursday Comp: $33.42M**

– DEADLINE (Current presales before the movie’s July 26 opening are at $19M, which is 15% behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($187.4M) and ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($118.4M) and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($181.3M) **(July 3)**.)

– abracadabra1998 ($27.75M Dune 2 + The Marvels THU Comp. A little note here, another theater in the metro I track, Showplace Icon in St Louis Park, shut down 🙁 thankfully, it was bought up right away by Marcus, but it is closed for now and it will be a bit before it opens back up. That meant a loss of 285 tickets, which is not nothing. Not as grave as Alamo closing down, but it does mess with the numbers a bit **(July 4)**.)

– Caption Action 3 (Early open caption advance sales. New York City skews the data somewhat. Open captions are booming in New York City where there is a law requiring at least some open caption screenings. One reason open captions do so well in New York City is the large immigrant community there. People learning English as a second language have been proven to benefit from captions. To counter New York City’s high numbers, have many theaters from across the country in the data pool of over 100 theaters, from Alabama to Wisconsin (Wyoming does not have any theaters offering open caption screenings). This data covers July 25 to July 28 and is for the first available open caption screening. Because it is early, the 5.00 threshold for tickets to screentimes has not been met yet **(July 3)**.)

– Charlie Jatinder ($38.5M MCU THU Comp. $67M FRI Comp. Not a lock but I will say $225M is more likelier than $150M **(June 26)**. MTC 1 is at T-17 level of Thor 4. MTC 2 is at T-15. MiniTC2 is at T-14.5 ish. | Sure DP3 can open to just $150M but if you see it open to just $150M at this moment is because you want it to open to $150M. Sales don’t tell that, at least at this moment. Just for some context, DP3 sales are roughly where Thor 4 was at T-17 days i.e. roughly 15 days from now on **(June 25)**.)

– Flip (FRI sales are 52% of THU sales **(July 7)**. 1.9x Bad Boys 4 T-0, 22.54x Twisters T-19, and 10.5x Quiet Place Day One (T-19). None of these comps are good so take them with a grain of salt **(July 6)**. Good growth for this far out **(June 25)**.)

– katnisscinnaplex ($33.14M THU Comp)

– keysersoze123 (Anyway I will ignore theaters impacted by hurricane as it will take days to restore power **(July 9)**. This includes data from theaters impacted by hurricane. Otherwise I am getting drop in ticket sales 🙂 My assumption is these theaters would be back online soon and tickets sold would count for sure **(July 8)**. Its definitely accelerating **(July 7)**. This had zero effect from July 4 holiday. So the sales are steady at the moment **(July 6)**. Obviously it did not sell much yesterday evening and so the pace would be still down. I am not expecting a ramp up over the weekend. Next surge should start from Monday onwards **(July 5)**. Definitely pace is up. 3 weeks to go. But as I said for me 2 weeks to go. Let us look at the pace early next week and see how it increases. Friday is still lower. But it should at least cross half of previews soon **(July 4)**. I must admit this (160-165M OW OR 170-180 OW) is within my expectations as well. Current pace I am seeing gets it there. Its perfectly possible for Disney to amp up the marketing. But they are holding back premier until release week and I am not convinced showing 1st 30 minutes is sufficient to take it to next level **(July 3)**. I think this is the new level (200,190) as we are approaching final 3 weeks. Thor was at 247,907 at T-7. Of course there is inflation. But ATP will keep going down as it sells more as most tickets are standard. So we have to do the T-7 comps. That would anyway be my final update and so that is where I am looking at for now 🙂 **(July 2)**. It has definitely bottomed and slightly on the up side at the moment **(June 30)**. May be there was a small bump today. Its moving slower anyway for now **(June 28)**. Fan Shows are at 26k, total previews (including Fan Shows) at 189k, and FRI at 87k. FYI DS2 started its sales on this equivalent day and already sold 231K **(June 26)**. Only good comps for Deadpool are their 2022 movies as their previews would be similar to Deadpool. Until we see Deadpool rise against those comps nothing is off the table. Even sub 30m previews though I am not predicting that. The fact that MCU movie is come up after a long break is a plus for this movie. | I am willing to bet that Doctor Strange 2 level of Thursday previews aint happening. Tomorrow comps with DS2 will come online you will see how far back it is even with eternity of presales vs 1 day for DS2. | It had fantastic start to presales and now in steady state mode which is way lower than 2022 blockbusters due to super long sales cycle. I think Wakanda comps are online and I think real time to comp these movies would be around T-7 time period when pace of all these movies should be similar and we can extrapolate where it will end. I still think Thor is the best comp as it was a july release and IM will be close to Thor than say Wakanda which released during Veteran’s day weekend. At this point the floor is 30/150 (unless it pulls a Marvels in its final week which is unlikely). Ceiling depends on many factors including rumors around who is there and how that can help pull in audience beyond atypical MCU fare. My prediction is 32/160 expecting a moving with middling reviews like normal Shawn Levy joint. MTC1 skew (compared to MTC2) is higher than usual due to fan shows just in MTC1. That has sold almost 85% of tickets. That is way stronger than overall preview sales skewing the numbers **(June 25)**.)

– M37 (I agree that there should be some caution in presuming this particular film will behave in sale patterns like a typical CMB, specifically the MCU. While I don’t disagree the there will probably be some level of GA-action draw that a typical MCU saga film won’t have, the catch-22 is that the R rating is going to limit family and teen attendance, generally two of the most late buying audience, as well as skewing more male, which impacts the when of sales patterns. Couple that audience nuance with the extremely long pre-sale period, and I’m hesitant to swallow those current MCU comps pointing to $30M+. My expectation is that the U-curve is going to bottom out here far more than usual, those comps value will fall, but we’ll see a stronger last week/GA surge to compensate, while also probably more concentrated in major metros, PLFs, and with higher ATP. Frankly, much more akin to a DC film like Batman than BPWF or Thor L&T. My current ballpark expectation is for a high $20Ms Thursday preview (but ask me again when we get to T-21 or T-14). Still clearly #2 for summer and the year (to that point), but not in any way making a run at Lion King’s July OW record **(June 25)**.)

– Porthos ($31.76M THU Comp. Very nice rebound today. 👍 **(July 6)**. People apparently had better things to do tonight than by tickets for a movie three weeks in advance. FWIW, CM over-performed in Sacramento for whatever reason **(July 5)**. Like, I just glanced at it right now, and a TROS-equivalent sold comp spits out 17.4m unadj. Which… No. Captain Marvel is actually semi-reasonable at 34.3m unadj. But that unadjusted does a LOT of work as it’ll rise to something like 39m to 40m after reasonable-ish ATP adjusting. Still… Maaaaaaaaaaaaaybe Captain Marvel. TROS? Not a chance. | I might think about something as we’re finally getting to the point where it might matter, at least where it comes to Captain Marvel (TROS will be a lol bad comp until probably T-7 or maybe even later). But then we also have ATP hikes + Sacramento probably taking a larger share of the DOM market than before. And so on and so on and so on **(July 4)**. Pace looks to be picking up slightly **(July 2)**. Pretty decent sized jump tonight over the average of the last week or so. More or less what I was expecting as it’s still pretty far out. I expect it to come back down to earth tomorrow, though there might still be some residual ticket sales from awareness from buzz/discussion **(June 29)**. Roughly at T-20 locally for presale tickets (L&T T-20: 5525 | DP3 T-31: 5519) but perhaps quibbling. I would point out though that since Thor 4 started out at T-24, it was much more concentrated than most other MCU films we’ve been discussing, and especially DP3. | $29.44M Doctor Strange 2 comp near same point in time before release. If we add another 80 tickets or so over the next couple of days, the comp rises to 29.9m, more or less. This is, of course, without any sort of ATP adjustment that has dominated discussion of the last couple of pages. Of course, that comp will drop in a hurry as MoM has its initial surge. Still, this will be the high water mark on a pure (unrepresentative ATP) comp until later in the pre-sale cycle. | After T-30, BP2 comp will settle into a more or less reliable pattern for the next couple of weeks, with an average sales of approx 121 tickets per day. DP3, by comparison, was reliably selling around 50 to 55 tickets per day for the last month, but has been sub-50 four out of the last six days. So something to keep an eye on in the case of DP3, though it might just be the very bottom of the U-curve/randomness at play. Either way, even at 60 a pop versus 120 a pop, it’s not gonna take long at all for BP2 to “overtake” DP3 once tomorrows 161 is factored in. On the other hand, even if we set aside ATP hikes since late 2022 (and we shouldn’t) Deadpool and Wolverine is still an R-rated movie. Even with some “cool parents” out there, the ATP will be decently higher than most recent MCU films while suppressing the overall sales numbers. That being said, I don’t know if the ATP will be quite as high as some popular R-rated films lately as this should still draw a higher percentage of kids tickets being sold. But then there’s the 3D factor which Deadpool has… The other major thing I’m curious about is whether or not this will be slightly more GA-skewing than a typical CBM. It’s more than a little silly to wonder about this, if only because of the insanely long pre-sale window burning up demand, but I do tend to wonder if the high action/adult-ish content of the film will play a role here in ticket buying patterns. Do think the later social media/review rollouts matter more, but I still wonder if the folks who typically buy tickets to R-rated action shoot ’em ups are still staying on the sidelines and waiting ’till closer to release. In the end, DP3 is gonna obliterate the R-rated preview record held by… DP2 ($18.6m). But because it’s gonna obliterate said record and because the highest R-rated film since theaters reopened is Oppenheimer at 10.5m, finding a good ATP comp for this film is probably going to be… challenging. Never mind figuring out a good pre-sale pattern comp **(June 25)**. BP2 over indexed in my tracking region (Sacramento) very slightly. | BP2 is likely to “overtake” DP3 much sooner than 20 days. Thor 4 is going to be a pretty bad comp for almost the entire run thanks to (A) DP3 having literally a month-and-a-half more days of pre-sales (DP3: T-66 | L&T: T-24) and (B) Thor 4 being relatively backloaded thanks to holiday timing and later review embargo lift. Mind DP3 also has a late review lift (as well as social media embargo) which is one of the reasons to think that it could have a strong finish. But 42 extra days of pre-sales is gonna put a tremendous thumb on the scale and by the time it may or may not equalize then we get into rollout timing differences **(June 24)**. For long releases of MCU/SW Saga caliber, it usually takes about 6 to 8 days for the initial wave to stop. The Rise of Skywalker didn’t really “bottom out” until D9 or so (T-51). Then at T-21, more or less, it started up its acceleration again. Can see similar patterns for MCU long runners (May 24).)

– TheFlatLannister ($34.76M GotG3 THU Comp. Probably 280 seats per a loc for fan shows here. Don’t think those showings are wide enough to really move the needle much past an extra $1m or so. | I don’t have any comps but it sold 6k tickets over the past 30ish days which is bonkers. | Hit the 7k target I set a few weeks ago. Amazing growth considering we still have 4 weeks left. I’m sticking with a way too early $35M+ number **(June 26)**. I think this clears $30M preview with ease. $20Ms just feels way too low for the start it had (I haven’t checked my data recently but it was well above anything I’ve ever tracked) **(June 25)**.)

– Tinalera (To any questions of Montreal-yes it really its own unique beast inside of Unique Canada- Other than Tentpoles (usually), of the 4 theatres I track they really can vary on pre sales and amt of screens (and theatres) between days **(July 10)**. Slow Steady growth still. Montreal esp showing some more life, so its gaining nicely there **(July 2)**. Slowing a little bit but still pretty steady esp for those Thurs nights which are hovering around 24=27 percent mark with just less than a month to go **(June 29)**.)

– vafrow ($34.6M THU Comp. Still nothing too exciting **(July 6)**. Growth is probably understated as I’m pretty sure I had a counting error of about 40 on an IMAX screening last time **(June 29)**. Only Marvel film tracked is The Marvels, which it’s doing much better than **(June 25)**.)

**Domestic Calendar Dates (last updated July 8):**

**JULY**

– (July 11) THU Previews [Fly Me to the Moon + Longlegs + Lumina]

– (July 11) Presales Start [Alien: Romulus (Noon EST)]

– (July 12) Opening Day [FRI: The Lion King 1994 Re-Release]

– (July 12) Presales Start [Fabulous Four]

– (July 16) Presales Start [Trap]

– (July 16) Review Embargo Lifts [Twisters (12 PM ET)]

– (July 17) EA [Twisters]

– (July 17) Presales Start [It Ends With Us]

– (July 18) THU Previews [Oddity + Twisters]

– (July 22) Deadpool and Wolverine Premiere (Reviews and Social Media Reactions to follow???)

– (July 24) Presales Start [Borderlands]

– (July 25) THU Previews [Deadpool and Wolverine (including 1 PLF fan show at 3 PM) + Didi + Fabulous Four]

**AUGUST**

– (August 1) THU Previews [Trap + Harold and the Purple Crayon]

– (August 8) THU Previews [Borderlands + Cuckoo + It Ends With Us]

– (August 12) Presales Start [Alien: Romulus]

– (August 14) Presales Start [The Crow]

– (August 15) THU Previews [Alien: Romulus + Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure + Skincare]

– (August 22) THU Previews [Blink Twice + The Crow + The Forge + Slingshot]

– (August 29) THU Previews [1992 + Afraid + City of Dreams + Reagan + They Listen]

**Presale Tracking Posts:**

[May 18](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cvi8t5/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_18/)

[May 21](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cxwol9/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_21_total/)

[May 23](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cz3h1j/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_23_bad_boys/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[May 25](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1d0orj1/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_25_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[May 28](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1d3628t/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_28_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[May 30](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1d4jgng/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_30_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[June 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1d6aq58/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_june_1_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[June 4](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1d8gct8/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_june_4_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[June 6](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1da36t8/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_june_6_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[June 8](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1dba5i3/bot_presale_tracking_june_8_lord_of_the_rings/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[June 13](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1df1c72/bot_presale_tracking_june_13_the_bikeriders_and/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[June 15](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1dh3pfm/bot_presale_tracking_june_15_thursday_comps_a/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[June 20](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1dkw4de/bot_presale_tracking_june_20_average_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[June 22](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1dmc8ar/bot_presale_tracking_june_22_thursday_comps_a/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[June 25](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1dpen99/bot_presale_tracking_june_25_thursday_comps_quiet/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[June 27](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1dqcq36/bot_presale_tracking_june_28_thursday_comps/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[June 29](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1drs3ry/bot_presale_tracking_june_30_thursday_comps/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[July 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1du9vpu/bot_presale_tracking_july_2_wednesday_opening_day/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

[July 6](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1dxbzly/bot_presale_tracking_july_6_eathu_comp_fly_me_to/?ref=share&ref_source=link)

Note: I have removed most tracking data that has not been updated for 2 weeks. I think there is value in keeping data for a week or two but at a certain point they start to lose their value and should not be treated the same as more recent tracking data.

by BOfficeStats