Weekend Actuals for May 3-5 – ‘The Fall Guy’ Fails to Kick Off the Summer Season

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It’s the first weekend of May, which means that the summer season is officially starting.

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And it started in a huge whimper, as ***The Fall Guy*** failed to build interest among moviegoers. Disney’s re-release of ***Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace*** performed solidly, while ***Tarot*** had one of the worst debuts in 3,000 theaters.

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The Top 10 earned a combined $68.2 million this weekend. This represents a massive 56.2% drop from last year, when ***Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3*** opened with $118 million. Excluding 2021 and 2020 for the pandemic, this was the worst first weekend of May since 1998. That’s a horrible way to kick off the summer season, and it guarantees that this will be one of the worst summers in recent memory.

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Debuting in 4,002 theaters, Universal’s ***The Fall Guy*** disappointed with just $27.7 million this weekend. That’s less than what David Leitch’s previous film, ***Bullet Train***, made back in August 2022 ($30 million). That makes the numbers so disappointing, especially as ***The Fall Guy*** was the first high budget blockbuster in one month.

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In fact, this debut is even worse than you can imagine for the summer kick-off. The first weekend of May marks the beginning of the summer season, and studios often put the most anticipated title here (mostly Marvel). This was the worst debut in this weekend since ***Kingdom of Heaven*** flopped back in 2005 with just $19 million. But it doesn’t stop just there; adjusted for inflation, it was the worst debut since ***He Got Game*** back in 1998 ($7.6 million unadjusted, $14.5 million adjusted). So it opened lower than other titles like ***The Mummy*** films ($43.3 million and $68.1 million), ***Gladiator*** ($34.8 million), ***Van Helsing*** ($51.7 million), and ***Mission: Impossible III*** ($47.7 million).

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Even if we want to downplay that it’s not fair to compare it to the previous films, that doesn’t change the fact that it’s a very poor start. Even Universal was confident that it seemed appropriate for this to open the summer season, they gave it a $130 million budget after all.

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Films about Hollywood are always a tough sell, just look at how badly ***Babylon*** did back in 2022. ***Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*** is an exception, and that’s because Quentin Tarantino, Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt are far bigger names than anyone in ***The Fall Guy***. So Universal wanted to highlight action and comedy in the trailers, emphasizing the roles of stuntmen in the film. It’s not uncommon to adapt TV shows as films, but it’s likely a lot of people are unaware that the film is based on an 1980s TV show (to the point that the TV lead Lee Majors appears in a cameo). A familiarity with the show could help in building nostalgia, but the original ***Fall Guy*** is not as fondly remembered as other classic shows like ***Charlie’s Angels*** or ***Miami Vice***.

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Last week, we addressed the topic of star power with Zendaya and ***Challengers***, and it feels like we gotta re-adress it here. Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt are known stars and have been part of some successful films. Yet it looks like they have been struggling in opening films based on their names alone. Gosling has starred in many flops in the past years, which included ***The Nice Guys***, ***Blade Runner 2049*** and ***First Man***, with ***La La Land*** and ***Barbie*** marking exceptions. Blunt hasn’t had many flops, and she can be credited for the box office success of ***A Quiet Place***, ***The Girl on the Train*** and ***Sicario***. It simply wasn’t enough. If you’re curious on how much impact their presence had: Deadline said that 50% came for Ryan Gosling, while 35% came for Emily Blunt. And that makes you wonder, if this is what they can bring, then imagine how low it would be with lesser known stars.

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According to Universal, 54% of the audience was male. It failed to attract interest among young audiences; a massive 71% was 25 and over. In some good news, the film has very good reviews and the audience also appears to like it: they gave it a solid “A–” on CinemaScore. The hope is that it can leg out like ***Bullet Train***, but that will be tough considering that film had a very weak August, while ***The Fall Guy*** will face a blockbuster each week. If the film fails to hit $100 million, that would be very bad news for the summer season.

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Second place belonged to another newcomer, Disney’s re-release of ***Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace*** for its 25th anniversary. Debuting in 2,700 theaters, it earned $8 million this weekend. That’s far off from its numbers back in 2012 when it re-released with $22 million, but this is still a very solid debut considering re-releases don’t make this much in the past years. For comparison, the re-release of ***Return of the Jedi*** last year debuted with $5.1 million. With this, its lifetime gross is now $482.6 million in North America. This is only for a limited time, and it also includes a preview for ***The Acolyte***.

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In third place, MGM’s ***Challengers*** added $7.6 million this weekend. That represents a 49% drop, which is fine, but not fantastic considering its low debut. Through ten days, the film has earned $29.4 million.

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In fourth place, Sony’s horror film ***Tarot*** earned just $6.5 million in 3,104 theaters. That’s one of the worst debuts for a film playing at 3,000+ theaters. Even with a low $8 million budget, this is not anything to write home about. With horrible reviews and poor word of mouth (“C–” on CinemaScore), expect this to fade away quickly.

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***Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire*** is still trying to hit the $200 million milestone. This weekend, it dipped 37% and added $4.5 million. That takes its domestic total to $188.1 million.

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A24’s ***Civil War*** wound up in fifth place, easing just 48% and adding $3.5 million. The film has already made $62 million, and it looks like it might hit $70 million.

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In seventh place, Lionsgate’s ***Unsung Hero*** added $2.9 million. That represents an awful 61% drop, which is quite steep considering its “A+” on CinemaScore. With $13.1 million in the bank, it will now finish below $20 million.

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***Kung Fu Panda 4*** continued holding well, dropping just 30% and adding $2.5 million. Its domestic total is now $188.4 million, and it has one last week before ***IF*** takes its family demo.

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In ninth place, Universal’s ***Abigail*** is on its last legs and it was just its third weekend. The film collapsed 55% and made $2.3 million this weekend. Its domestic total stands at $22.8 million and now will finish below $30 million, and it might finish below Radio Silence’s ***Ready or Not*** ($28.7 million).

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Rounding up the Top 10 was ***Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire***. It added $1.8 million after dropping 43%, which takes its domestic total to $109.9 million.

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A24 released ***I Saw the TV Glow*** in 4 theaters, debuting with $116,340. That translates to a fine but not great $29,085 per-theater average. It will continue expanding in the coming weeks.

#**OVERSEAS**

***The Fall Guy*** also led the overseas numbers, yet it wasn’t anything memorable either. It expanded to 78 markets, and added $25.4 million. Adding last week’s previews and its domestic performance, its worldwide total stands at $64.4 million. That’s quite underwhelming, considering its $130 million budget. It had soft-to-mediocre debuts in the UK ($4.4M), Mexico ($2.5M), France ($2.3M), Germany ($1.9M), Italy ($1.4M), and South Korea ($1.1M). With competition on its way with ***Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes*** this week, the film will probably fail to break even, which is a very way to start the summer season.

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3 weeks ahead of its debut in North America, ***The Garfield Movie*** debuted with $22 million in 18 markets. It had a strong debut in Mexico, earning $8.4 million in its first six days, followed by Spain with $3.2 million over five days, Brazil at $2.2 million, Italy with $1.6 million and Peru at $1.3 million. We’ll see how it goes as it continues expanding.

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***Godzilla x Kong*** added another $9.8 million, taking its worldwide total to $547 million. Its best markets are China ($131.3M), Mexico ($33.2M), UK ($17.5M), India ($15.2M) and Australia ($12M).

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***Kung Fu Panda 4*** added another $7.7 million for a $520 million worldwide total.

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After its disappointing start, ***Challengers*** appears to have some minimal power overseas. It eased just 24% and added $7.5 million, taking its worldwide total to $50 million. Its best new market was Netherlands, but it opened to just $485K. Its best markets are the UK ($4.4M), Italy ($3.3M), France ($2.3M), Australia ($2M) and Mexico ($1.6M). It’s still got a long way to go before breaking even.

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***Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace*** also re-released in a few markets, adding $6.4 million. With these numbers, its worldwide total now stands at $1.035 billion.

#**MOVIES THAT ENDED THEIR RUN THIS WEEK**

Movie | Release Date | Studio | Domestic Opening | Domestic Total | Worldwide Total | Budget |
———-|———-|———-|:——–:|:——–:|:——–:|:——–:
*Immaculate* | Mar/22 | Neon | $5,338,921 | $15,671,306 | $19,790,679 | $9M

– Neon’s ***Immaculate*** has closed with $19 million worldwide. Domestically, it’s Neon’s fourth highest grossing film, but it’s not a high bar. It was lucky to get weak competition on the way, but these numbers are quite low for a horror title. Sydney Sweeney impressed a few months ago with ***Anyone but You***, but it looks like that interest didn’t translate here. Quite a mediocre performance for a horror film.

#**THIS WEEKEND**

The good news is that we’ll have an uptick from this weekend.

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20th Century Studios is releasing ***Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes***, the next chapter in the reboot franchise. Set 300 years after the events of ***War***, it follows an ape who challenges the beliefs of the new ape king, Proximus Caesar, with the help of a young human girl. The ***Apes*** franchise has been one of the studio’s most prized properties, and all (even the reviled Tim Burton reboot) have been successful. The previous film earned $490 million worldwide, so it will be interesting to see how much it earns in proximity.

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We’re also getting another release, albeit smaller. That’s ***Not Another Church Movie***, a parody of Christian films starring Jamie Foxx, Kevin Daniels and Mickey Rourke. Don’t expect much from here; Briarcliff is not a big studio, and the parody genre has been dead for years.

by SanderSo47