Honorable Mentions:
Verity (Amazon MGM)
Digger (Warner Bros.)
Clayface (Warner/DC)
Focker in Law (Paramount/Universal)
GOAT (Sony)
Explaining my Predictions:
– I fully expect Odyssey to breeze past the billion-dollar mark. Christopher Nolan’s track record with original cinema is staggering: Interstellar hit $700M, Inception reached $800M, and even Tenet managed nearly $400M during the height of the 2020 pandemic. Look at Oppenheimer. while the "Barbenheimer" craze provided a massive $360M launch in its first two weeks, the film earned another $600M globally long after the trend faded, with $190M coming from IMAX. This proves the success was driven by genuine word-of-mouth as well. Combining an all-star cast with an adaptation of one of history’s most famous literary works, Nolan and the IMAX brand have become powerhouse draws that practically guarantee a blockbuster result.
– : I’ve been right about the billion-dollar runs for Zootopia and Inside Out 2, as well as thinking Lilo and Stitch will be big, but I’m skeptical here. This Moana remake doesn't have the same novelty as other sequels/remakes, coming so soon after the first film and the recent sequel. It’s missing that "nostalgia factor" that usually carries these remakes to $1B. Plus, with Minions and Toy Story fighting for the same family demographic, it’s going to have a tougher time. It’ll be a big hit, sure, but likely more of a "Jurassic World" situation than a record-breaker.
by plantersxvi
19 Comments
Avengers, Spider-Man, Mario, and Mandalorian will be higher.
jumanji has competition but it’s not dropping $300m from the last film, hunger games too low imo, i feel pretty confident michael and moana will be billion dollar grossers. verity will do housemaid numbers
I still think this sub is putting too much stock in The Odyssey. It’ll make money, but 1B?
Moana I think can do up to 1b more then that. Avengers and BND should also be higher if they’re good.
Moana at $800M is wishful thinking with how recent Disney remakes have performed. It will crack a billion for sure. Odyssey and Toy Story 5 probably do slightly worse. And I think Project Hail Mary will be in the Top 10.
You underestimate how beloved Michael Jackson is outside of the US especially in Western Europe, china, Japan, and latam. It’ll do a billion easily
I love these types of posts – thanks for putting in the work! Five billion-dollar movies this year would be amazing!!
Michael is going to make 1 billion and people here are going to be shocked.
Odyssey won’t reach $1 billion; it seems overvalued, especially in this era of so many releases. Avengers and Spider-Man won’t stop there.
No way odyssey does 1bn. Also think the two major marvel films will do better than your prediction.
Am I crazy for thinking Spiderman will just ever so slightly out perform Avengers?
Feels like the hook for Spiderman is so much simpler for general audiences and that it will be way more immune to the “fatigue”.
Like I imagine everyone who’s going to see Avengers will also see Spiderman, but that Spiderman will also get extra sales from people who are for the most part out on the MCU now, with the exception of Spidey.
RemindMe! 9 months
The Odyssey is too high and i can see masters of the universe coming close to 300m but other than that i agree.
Wow, if Supergirl gets between $300M to $400M, is Gunn’s DC reboot already dead in the water?
You’re underestimating Hunger Games
Unpopular opinion: I think Spider-Man could potentially make more than Doomsday.
Star Wars far too low imo, scary movie 6 will make half of that is my hot take
*Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle* (2017) grossed **$404m** domestic ($530m adjusted) and **$551m** internationally*,* and *Jumanji: The Next Level* (2019) grossed **$320m** ($403m adjusted) and **$448m** internationally.
No way is *Jumanji 3/4* gonna make just $500m, considering how overseas heavy they are, around 41/59.
Not bad.
The Odyssey/Michael are way too high.
Star Wars/DC movie are a little on the low end.
It’s been 7 years since a SW movie, I believe people will show up(If the movie is good lol).