2026 Summer Box Office Predictions (WW)

1. Spiderman Brand New Day – $1.3B.

Spiderman is always going to be a hot brand, even if Marvel is completely in the gutter. Obviously this is dropping from NWH, but Tom's Spiderman is enough of a draw on his own for it to still pull in big numbers. Few counter arguments if people say I'm lowballing- the record number trailer views is a good sign but its so impossible to distinguish what counts as an actual "view" nowadays, 1 second clips of the trailer were put out the night before, the trailer autoplays as an ad on tiktok, etc., it's impossible to tell what is the true reason the view count doubled from the previous record holder. Also, Far From Home made $1.1B coming off of Endgame hype, yes I think this does better, but just not $1.5B well. Also I don't think Hulk or Punisher are mainstream draws at all, they aren't going to be selling any tickets, it's all coming from Spidey.

1. Toy Story 5 – $1.1B

Toy Story is Pixar's flagship franchise. 4 had a small increase from 3 even with a 9-year gap, but I do think 5 increases from 4. The ipad plotline is very timely and I trust Pixar to sell it well. Slight increase from 4 is what I'm putting it right now.

1. The Odyssey – $875M

Yeah it's going to be big and the hype is real. Just not $1B big. You guys are forgetting how difficult it is for a movie like this to clear $1B. Nolan is probably the biggest draw there is at the moment and he is telling one of the most famous stories there is. But simply saying it will make more than Oppenheimer because it is more accessible is a flawed argument. Sometimes movies just become absolute lightning in a bottle type moments, which is what happened to Oppenheimer, and I don't think it'll be replicated. $700M+ for a movie like this is an incredible result and I definitely see that happening.

1. Minions & Monsters – $850M

Not much to say about this, Despicable Me/Minions = close to $900M. Thinking a small drop but won't be shocked if it finishes the exact same as the last two.

1. Moana – $800M

Moana is a huge brand and people will be seeing this movie. It just doesn't have the nostalgia factor that Stitch/Renaissance films have which is why I think it misses a billion. Still will be big.

1. The Devil Wears Prada 2 – $600M

Devil Wears Prada is a beloved movie and I think this legacy sequel will have an obvious increase from the first. Original cast returning, trailer hype seems to be there, should easily win May.

1. Disclosure Day – $350M

Not sure if I'm overselling this or underselling, I think this looks like classic Spielberg and people will go and see it. It's just difficult for any original to clear $400M in 2026, even those by Spielberg.

1. The Mandalorian & Grogu – $325M

Man it is not looking good for Star Wars. Most recent trailer was an improvement but a film for a streaming series was not the correct choice for Star War's return to theatrical. Honestly if this is a The Marvels level disaster I wouldn't even be shocked, I'll try to be optimistic right now and say $300M+, but even that is a pretty terrible result…

1. Supergirl – $300M

Straight up, I don't think there is an audience for this movie. If this has half of Superman's appeal I think it would be lucky. The trailers are also not good. People are saying Momoa will bring in the needed appeal, but Aquaman 2, a sequel to a billion dollar film only cleared $400M by a little bit. He can't sell this film on his own, I don't think anyone will be seeing this really and the Superman sequel is going to have to save the brand next year.

Guess I did a top 9 instead of 10, I know I am missing some films (Masters of the Universe, Scary Movie), but I have no predictions for those, and I know the comments will tell me I am lowballing. This will be fun, let me know how you think.