Prime EA sales on day of release were 47% of Wicked 2's Prime EA showings (which made $6.1M). Alternatively, it was ~33% of Wicked 2's Wednesday EA which was reported at $6.5M.
The last chart is something new (or rather something old – it's a poor man's version of the concept other people have done elsewhere). It's a "chose your own adventure" visualization of how to transform PHM's preview estimate to a "final" OW number. I grabbed all major post-pandemic March releases (sans children's films) and removed the highest/lowest ends that felt unrealistic (i.e. this is more art than science). I tried to indicate what I think are likely v. unlikely (pink) outcomes on this chart but you should feel free to disagree. One thing more explicitly pulling these comps highlighted to me was how I was previously being a bit too bearish on the implied "IM" given how often this stuff is talked about in regards to superhero films which have much more frontloaded dynamics.
The chart above includes only March releases; however, to add a few additional comps – Tron Ares was 7.9, F1 7.5x, MI Final Reckoning was 7.7x and Fall Guy was 8.8x. Obviously, as you add additional variables to control for (including, well, the degree of EA impact) comps will get weaker; however, I think this highlights a pretty decent range of outcomes.
I highlighted the $74M number because my average was 9.3M and 8x seemed a safe IM so $9.3 x 8 + ~3.5M [Prime Member Monday sales and special PLF/70MM showings over the weekend, the latter of which would have a theoretical cap of roughly 750k/800k based on my scratch paper calculations] = 77.5M OW. The post's title says $75M basically just to avoid a charge of false precision – this is ultimately extrapolating from 5 theaters with some ambiguity in which precise comps to use. A big question will be to see the dynamic between "book fans" and PHM looking like a quasi-original film to many others. I don't have a great sense of how to balance those ideas.
One reason to expect a higher IM instead of a lower end one is the film appears to have strong Friday growth (I have very few comps but it's ratio between R and F is solid hopefully indicating a less frontloaded film).
My "pure Thursday" comps (just a flat "sales of film X / sales of film Y" number) are, as of the Monday prior to opening weekend $9.2M for Avatar 3, $5.9M for Wuthering Heights (the film had terrible walkups), OBAA $12M, Tron Ares $9.4M, F4 $8.9M, Superman $9.5M. My F1 number ends up being an unworkable outlier (near $30M) and even combining EA and previews for F1 but not PHM gives a 16M comp.
by SilverRoyce