Project Hail Mary Presales Tracking [my 5 theater sample] 7 days out – Thursday Previews have heavily slowed down to look like ~$9M (though Prime EA growth is solid). ALL preview showings combined (including ~750k from very limited Early Access showings this weekend) are probably ~$12M [60-70M OW]

[here's my comment from a few days ago trying to roughly quantify "the other EA" sales impact](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1rp16vk/comment/o9iitvk/?context=3)

Basically, while this [$12M number](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1rmfvlf/project_hail_mary_presales_my_mini_5_theater/) is flat from my last post, it's actually down as I forgot to factor in the limited EA. Given all of this extra EA, the "internal multiplier" is probably going to be a bit depressed for the film (though if you think this film gets exceptional Word of Mouth, that could be a contrary factor), hence my rough lowered OW estimate.

EA presale reference numbers: Wicked for Good's Prime EA was estimated at $6.1M [$6.5M for Wednesday EA which had similar presale dynamics], F1 EA was reported at $2.8M, no one reported Ballerina's EA v. Thursday split.

Using the last day/4 day presales to predict Prime EA sales on T-2 v. wicked PrimeEA T-2 gets me a $2.1M comp (and you'd expect growth to increase). A straight comp v. F1's EA gets me over $5M (which I think is clearly wrong given that Wicked's Prime EA [and regular EA] were close to true sellouts).

rough attempts to get extra comps – doing some quick doodling against Avatar 3's growth rate, Superman's comp would be in the low teens. If Thunderbolts were on this graph, it would very roughly equate to a ~$9M comp but that's an extrapolation so you'd want more error bars basically, for boring reasons, I only have 4/5 theater data for a few dates for that film prior to T-3 and the theater I'm missing is the largest one

I think with Superman or Superman/Thunderbolts, you could inch this up a bit to a 9.5M/10M comp but there's just so much uncertainty with those extrapolations (yesterday I was thinking over 10M due to including Superman and lacking another bad day of PHM R presales) but I'm also feeling my own thumb on the numbers by doing that.

Data