My Hobbit comp model was able to predict Avatar: Fire and Ash’s 8th weekend gross (day 52) with 99% accuracy on day 13 of release, and has been within 99.5% accuracy since the end of its 3rd weekend
My Hobbit comp model was able to predict Avatar: Fire and Ash’s 8th weekend gross (day 52) with 99% accuracy on day 13 of release, and has been within 99.5% accuracy since the end of its 3rd weekend
Thought it was about time to do a bit of a proper retrospective on the model.
This plot is showing what the model predicts the cumulative domestic gross should be by day 52 – the end of its 8th weekend, if we ran my model on each day of release.
The model became accurate to within 1% on day 13, December 31st, the 2nd Wednesday. This is just 25% of the way through the run, and the model was already 99% accurate. That’s pretty damn good. The model hit 99.5% accuracy in forecasting the day 52 gross by January 4th, day 17 of release.
Overall, this simple four parameter model has exhibited amazing forecasting precision.
As of today, the model is forecasting Fire and Ash to hit $409.8k by day 100. Though this figure has been trending down over the past week.
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Thought it was about time to do a bit of a proper retrospective on the model.
This plot is showing what the model predicts the cumulative domestic gross should be by day 52 – the end of its 8th weekend, if we ran my model on each day of release.
The model became accurate to within 1% on day 13, December 31st, the 2nd Wednesday. This is just 25% of the way through the run, and the model was already 99% accurate. That’s pretty damn good. The model hit 99.5% accuracy in forecasting the day 52 gross by January 4th, day 17 of release.
Overall, this simple four parameter model has exhibited amazing forecasting precision.
As of today, the model is forecasting Fire and Ash to hit $409.8k by day 100. Though this figure has been trending down over the past week.