[BoxOfficeTheory Presale Tracking](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/page/758/#comments)
[**USA Showtimes As of May 3**](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4673440)
[Presales Data (Google Sheets Link)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zRjKpNOjPCBIgUULoyXyj5sBGMuU9owswn7bMfz1WSE/edit#gid=0)
[BoxOfficeReport Previews](http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html)
**DOMESTIC PRESALES**
**Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes EA comps/predictions: $1.31M/$1.35M**
**Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Thursday comps/predictions: $4.65M/$4.54M**
– abracadabra1998 ($1.13M EA comp and $4.04M Thursday comp. Very good pace. My final prediction is $4.25 Million, +/-0.25, and with my prediction for EA yesterday at $1.25 Million, I think they will report it at around $5.5 Million (May 8). I am planting my flag at around $1.25 Million EA. Despite EA continuing to draw sales, Thursday actually keeps rising against comps. I would not be surprised to see the average end up over 4. Good stuff! (May 7). The average went down artificially because I didn’t track GxK’s last week and missed today’s update for Madame Web, all comps actually went up except for Indy which stayed steady! (May 6). Very good EA numbers at the moment, and I would think that with it drawing from Thursday previews that is also a good sign. I am bullish for this, pace keeps doing pretty well! (May 5). Keeps doing really well and rising against comps (May 2).)
– AniNate (These presales leave something to be desired (May 4).)
– Charlie Jatinder (Incredible walkups for Apes. WOM seems meh though. (May 9).)
– crazymoviekid ($5.36M Thursday and $13.11M Friday comp. Thursday continuing to go up and Friday had good day of sales (May 8). Thursday comps nudging up to $4.5M-$5M. Bit of a wide range for Friday right now. Think it’ll land closer in the middle. $13M for now (May 7).)
– el sid ($5.15M Thursday comp. Up decent 20% since yesterday (May 9). Up modest 12.5% since yesterday (May 8). Over $4M Thursday for sure from my theaters (May 7).)
– katnisscinnaplex ($4.14M Combined SizeAdjusted+GrowthModel comp. $1.06M EA comp and $4.22M Thursday comp. $1.84M EA, $4.38M Thursday, and $14.48M Friday Santikos comp. Something very strange is going on here with FIVE of my comps coming up around 3.5m-3.6m. If it wasn’t for that, I’d feel really good about 4.25m. I’ll still go with it, but with a word of caution that a pattern that strong is pretty convincing (May 9). Still pacing right along with GxK. Expecting around 45% of whatever the previews actually were for that (May 9). Good increase from yesterday for Santikos (May 8). Nothing amazing at Santikos yet. Usually this chain goes crazy with this type of movie so we’ll see if it blows up in the last few days. | Sticking pretty close to GxK pace so I’d lean into that comp a bit as the others will likely shift more (May 7). Added Godzilla which brought the average way up (May 1).)
– keysersoze123 (It definitely blew up huge today. I am expecting 5-5.25m Thursday only and another 1.4-1.5m for early shows yesterday. Friday will probably hit low teens and OW should hopefully cross 50m. | Walkups look very good to me. Should cross my targets for sure (May 9). Walkups today were really good for early shows. So $4.7m Thursday and with early shows around $6.1M/$6.2M previews. That said its possible that studio would just report thursday. | Thinking somewhere in 1.4/1.5m for early shows (May 8). Its going to open bigger than Fall Guy for sure. Not sure how wide the early shows are. But a EA gross around 1.5m could be in play. Previews we have to wait and see how it accelerates close to release (April 27). Again minus early shows, presales are moribund (April 17). Presales does not scream a huge breakout. Early shows have good presales but that is just it. Definitely nothing close to a $90M opening weekend (April 9).)
– Porthos ($5.70M Thursday comp and $7.38M EA+Thursday comp. Could be that EA is very strong locally and that’s putting a bit more of a thumb on the scale. I expect these comps to go down, and quite a bit, but could just be that this is popular in Sacramento for whatever reason (May 6).)
– Relevation ($2.61M EA+Thursday comp. Well, Planet of the Apes clearly isn’t a hot property in MN. Apes bombed badly here, selling worse than Spy x Family and Ordinary Angels, and failing to clear $4M against any serious comp. GxK probably closest to the mark, but my market blew way under what everyone else is seeing. Hence my prediction is significantly higher, to the tune of almost double what the comps say here. $5M THU and a $55M OW is where I’m thinking (May 8).)
– Rorschach ($4.2M Thursday comp and $14.6M Friday comp.)
– TheFlatLannister ($4.51M Thursday comp. Fall guys and Godzilla comps finished at $4.7M However, all other comps, even Dune are around $6M. Thinking previews will come in at $6M+ with EA baked in. | Having excellent walkups so far. Probably overindexing here, but all comps are well over $6M Thursday (May 9). Thinking $4.5M + whatever EA is (May 9). Could do $4.5M Thursday depending on walkups tomorrow (May 8). Overall, a good update…Looking like $4M+ previews without EA (May 6). Not the best growth, but not terrible either. Increased against all comps which is a good sign (May 5). Starting to accelerate. Very good growth (May 3). Not even going to update Planet of the Apes because its growth has been pitiful (April 30).)
– Vafrow (Final $1.2M EA comp with good walk ups. $4.0M Thursday comp. So far, a 77% increase from the start of the day. Not bad, but not a mass breakout. One thing that I’ve been tracking, but not paying too much attention to, is that I find the lack of IMAX sales to be a little surprising. It’s under 30% of sales, in a five theatre sample with two IMAX screens. This isn’t Dune or Avatar, but it’s still a visual movie that has a strong critical reputation among film buffs. I would have thought it’s grabbed more of it’s audience from people to the largest screens. It makes me wonder if it is grabbing a more general/family audience. And if so, maybe it has more potential to leg out a bit. Just a theory (May 9). It didn’t quite get the jump it needed. Still, I think $4.0M for pure Thursday would be decent, combined with another $1M or so from EA (May 8). This is a pretty good day, and it’s before the review drop. Decent day. There’s lots of variability on the comps, so this could still end up anywhere, but it feels like with EA being strong, the total previews figure can probably get to above $5M (May 8). A slight decline in the comps, as the preceding Sunday is usually a big day for sales. Still, it’s holding it’s own (May 8). A good jump up in the comps (May 7). Growth remains steady, letting it hold ground (May 4). Staying pretty steady (May 3). It is trending in the right direction right now (May 1). It actually had a decent day (April 29). Sales dropped by 3. Cancelled tickets for one of the shows it seems. It keeps getting worse (April 28). Continues to be sluggish (April 26).)
**The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Monday Re-Release**
– filmlover (Have actually sold a fairly decent amount of seats so far (April 15).)
**IF Thursday comp: $1.42M**
– PROMOTIONS (APRIL 29 ONLY: Each purchased ticket with RegalMovies gifts a ticket to someone at 826. Regal offering 2500 rewards points.)
– abracadabra1998 ($1M Thursday comp. One week out, not impressed in the slightest (May 9). Rising against comps as expected, due to the short release window, but I am still failing to see anything that suggests the numbers given by some other outlets (May 5). The release window for this is way shorter than all these comps so those numbers will naturally go up. Decent growth in the last three days (May 2). Comps are obviously silly at this stage, just wanted to show that unsurprisingly not really a lot of interest from a get-go. We shall see how it does in these coming weeks (April 29).)
– AniNate (I dunno, I have no comps but I feel like local presales is a pretty sizable haul a week in advance for an original non-Disney kids movie (May 9). I did see a surprising amount of single sales looking at IF charts (May 1). Gonna try some amateur local tracking: 55 tickets sold across 4 Cinemarks. I feel like this level of unadulterated upfront interest is pretty notable for an original family movie (April 30).)
– charlie Jatinder (Hmm. So no real Regal impact it seems at katnisscinnaplex’s theaters (April 30).)
– DAJK (Selling pretty well so far here (May 4).)
– el sid (Not really signs for a breakout for Friday so far, but very solid. It will not really get 4-6M Thursday e.g. compared to Migration but from most comps the number could be pretty decent (May 7). Looked good for the film, both on Thursday and on Friday (May 6).)
– katnisscinnaplex ($1.89M Thursday comp and $1.49M EA+Thursday comp. 25 Regal sales (out of 45?) (April 30).)
– TheFlatLannister ($2.37M Thursday comp. Pace is collapsing a bit. Continues its downward trend (May 7). After a strong start, this has cooled off quite a bit (May 4). This is very good considering the lower amount of showings it has (April 30).)
– vafrow ($0.4M Thursday comp. Since the last update, they released full showtime sets, and it actually lost two showtimes rather than gain. From the sound of it, it might be doing better in other Canadian markets, particularly BC (May 8). Numbers are still really low, making the standard track fairly useless. I did do a larger 100km radius track, encompassing the broader southern Ontaro market (~8M population, MTC4 being about 70-80% of the market). Even against Haunted Mansion, which underindexed here, it’s not doing well (May 4). For a 100 km radius (which captures the whole broader region, probably about an 8M population base), it’s sold 11 tickets. Still no sales locally (April 30). I think this only went up overnight, so it’s not too odd to have zero sales (April 29).)
**The Strangers: Chapter 1 Thursday Comp: $1.59M**
– katnisscinnaplex ($1.59M Thursday comp)
– TwoMisfits (TMobile deal for May – $5 ticket to The Strangers Chapter 1 next Tuesday (May 9).)
**Furiosa Thursday Comp *assuming $5M For keysersoze123*: $3.71M**
– abracadabra1998 ($5.27M Thursday comp. Really good stuff in this market (May 9). Reallyyyyyy good day 1 here. I want to note that: NO I do NOT think preview numbers will be that high; it’s just highlighting the fact that this is likely a movie that will be running hot in my market, as cinephile blockbusters usually do. Next update I will have T-14 comps, which will be a lot lower due to the short release window (May 8).)
– AniNate (Skimmed through Thur/Fri and Valley View (Cleveland vicinity) has sold roughly 60 Furiosa tix so far while Tinseltown (Canton) has sold 40. I’m guessing the upfront audience does lean more toward the urban/cosmopolitan sensibilities (May 9). Presales show there’s definitely some hype for this. Regal gonna irritate trackers again, offering no upcharge IMAX for Furiosa (May 8).)
– el sid (I also can’t complain about Furiosa’s presales in my theaters, not at all. Already 1,138 sold tickets (in all of “my” 7 theaters) for May 23. 14 days left. Promising start. Civil War on Thursday of the release week for Thursday had 1,357 sold tickets and The Fall Guy finally had 1,071 sold tickets (May 9).)
– katnisscinnaplex ($2.99M Thursday comp.)
– keysersoze123 (I think this is a solid OD presales. With a short PS window its probably looking at 5m+ previews (May 9).)
– TheFlatLannister ($3.36M Thursday comp. Really strong day 2. The short presales is for sure a factor (May 9). Not seeing much of a breakout. Still pretty solid start to presales (May 8).)
– vafrow ($1.95M Thursday comp. Not the hottest start. IMAX is the format of choice though, so, ATP will be high (May 9).)
**The Garfield Movie EA+Thursday Comp: $2.4M**
– abracadabra1998 ($0.88M EA comp and $1.33M Thursday comp. Good EA numbers, but many of these comps were PLF-only EA, which this is not, so I think the ATP will be quite lower and that should be adjusted for (May 9). Seems like it’ll be like Trolls where EA syphons off all the early sales. Very low sales will lead to big variance in these early days. Trolls ($1.63M) is the most useful Thursday comp due to similar EA situations (April 25).)
– el sid (The very even sales are a good sign (May 7). For Sunday, May 19, I can already report that also in my theaters it looks very good for Garfield. They will for sure add shows soon. It has so far only 1 show/theater and the shows are almost sold out, between 1 and 4 seats are still available. So my guess still is that this movie if it’s not totally bad (and first reviews here were quite positive) will become a (big) hit. Seems not much on Thursday but it’s a step in the right direction (May 6).)
– katnisscinnaplex ($2.59M EA+Thursday comp.)
– Porthos (Maybe it’s only in Sacto, but have to say I was rather impressed with Garfield’s sales. Did pretty decently on its D1 locally, all things considered. And it wasn’t even thanks to an EA boost as the lone EA showing up so far has sold exactly one ticket so far. Considering the extreme backloaded nature of the genre + at least some upfront interest due to the Name Brand, not gonna do any comps. Yet. But I will provide some contrasts. Garfield: 60 tickets sold on Day 1 (EA: 1 ticket sold) [T-31]. Sonic 2: 182 tickets D-1 [T-24]. Minions 2: 67 tickets D-1 [T-24]. Nope: 57 tickets D-1 [T-42]. Elemental: 37 tickets D-1 [T-30]. Wonka: 57 tickets D-1 [T-29]. Mean Girls: 52 tickets D-1 [T-29]. (April 23).)
– TheFlatLannister ($2.14M Thursday comp.)
– vafrow (Still no sales for my core sample for previews. But I did the larger sweep, which shows the interest right now is the Sunday early access shows. Looking at sales patterns, it’s mainly blocks of 3/4 tickets, so likely families grabbing some. It’s worth noting that the May holiday in Canada is the weekend of May 17-20th, not the weekend after with Memorial Day. I can see families prioritizing getting out the holiday weekend when they have more time (May 4). Still no sales (April 28).)
**The Lord of the Rings Extended Edition Re-Releases (June 8-10)**
– katnisscinnaplex (Up to ~1,400 shows now with new locations picking it up and others adding a second showing. LotR1 has sold 831 seats OD, LotR2 sold 715 seats OD, and LotR3 sold 735 seats OD. For comparison, Phantom Menace didn’t break 800 tickets until T-3 and we’re still over a month out. JW3 comp is currently around 9m (it was at 1,670 tickets sold at this point!) (May 6). Just for kicks I took a look at the LotR re-releases scheduled for June. They’re getting one show each (for the most part) in around 1k theaters. Some locations already adding a second showing (April 30). Looks to be in around 1k theaters. Sales looking good already as expected (I already got mine!) (April 26).)
**Domestic Calendar Dates (last updated May 3):**
**MAY**
– (May 9) Thursday Previews [Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes + Not Another Church Movie]
– (May 10) Presales Start [In a Violent Nature + Haikyu: The Dumpster Battle]
– (May 12) Social Media Embargo Lifts [Garfield 9 AM EST]
– (May 13) Opening Day [Monday: The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Re-Release]
– (May 14) Presales Start [Inside Out 2]
– (May 16) Presales Start [Bad Boys Ride or Die]
– (May 16) Thursday Previews [Babes + Back to Black + If + The Strangers: Chapter 1 + The Blue Angels IMAX]
– (May 19) Review Embargo Lifts [Garfield 9 PM EST]
– (May 20) Opening Day [Monday: Spider-Man Homecoming Re-Release]
– (May 23) Thursday Previews [Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga + The Garfield Movie + Sight]
– (May 26) Presales Start [Bikeriders]
– (May 27) Opening Day [Monday: Spider-Man Far From Home Re-Release]
– (May 30) Thursday Previews [Ezra + Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle + Robot Dreams + The Young Woman and the Sea]
**JUNE**
– (June 3) Opening Day [Monday: Spider-Man No Way Home Re-Release]
– (June 5) Presales Start [Despicable Me 4]
– (June 6) Thursday Previews [Bad Boys: Ride or Die + The Watchers]
– (June 8) 1-Saturday Re-Release [The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring Extended Edition]
– (June 9) 1-Sunday Re-Release [The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Extended Edition]
– (June 10) 1-Monday Re-Release [The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King Extended Edition]
– (June 13) Thursday Previews [Inside Out 2]
– (June 20) Thursday Previews [The Bikeriders + Janet Planet]
– (June 27) Thursday Previews [Blue Lock The Movie -Episode Nagi- + Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 + A Quiet Place: Day One]
**JULY**
– (July 2) Opening Day [Wednesday: Despicable Me 4]
– (July 4) Opening Day [Thursday: Possum Trot]
– (July 4) Thursday Previews [MaXXXine]
– (July 11) Thursday Previews [Fly Me to the Moon + Untitled New Line Horror movie]
– (July 18) Thursday Previews [Twisters]
– (July 25) Thursday Previews [Deadpool and Wolverine + Didi + Fabulous Four]
**AUGUST**
– (August 1) Thursday Previews [Harold and the Purple Crayon]
– (August 8) Thursday Previews [Borderlands + Colleen Hoover’s It Ends With Us + Cuckoo + The Fire Inside + Trap]
– (August 15) Thursday Previews [Alien: Romulus + Horizon An American Saga Chapter 2 + Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure]
– (August 22) Thursday Previews [Blink Twice + The Crow + The Forge + Slingshot]
– (August 29) Thursday Previews [City of Dreams + Reagan + They Listen]
**Presale Tracking Posts:**
[April 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1bui693/domestic_presale_tracking_april_2_tuesday_final/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[April 4](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1bwao8r/domestic_presale_tracking_april_4_final/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[April 6](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1bxph3u/domestic_presale_tracking_april_6_suga_aiming_for/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[April 9](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1c05rmr/domestic_presale_tracking_april_9_suga_singing_to/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[April 11](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1c1wsvw/domestic_presale_tracking_april_11_civil_war/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[April 13](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1c3mbrs/domestic_presale_tracking_april_13_spiderman_2002/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[April 16](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1c5hnjw/domestic_presale_tracking_april_16_thursday_comps/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[April 18](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1c7io0s/domestic_presale_tracking_april_18_final_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[April 20](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1c92agm/domestic_presale_tracking_april_20_total_preview/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[April 23](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cb7h6j/domestic_presale_tracking_april_23_total_preview/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[April 25](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cd5gav/domestic_presale_tracking_april_25_final_ea_and/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[April 27](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cew2dn/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_april_27_the_fall/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[April 30](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1chade5/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_april_30_the_fall/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[May 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1citcz1/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_2_the_fall_guy/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[May 4](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1ckdjy1/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_4_total_preview/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[May 7](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cmos8y/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_7_preview_comps/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
Note: I have removed most tracking data that has not been updated for 2 weeks. I think there is value in keeping data for a week or two but at a certain point they start to lose their value and should not be treated the same as more recent tracking data.
by BOfficeStats